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Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-16 Peter Z. Schochet

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-06 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu

There is increasing interest in combining information from experimental studies, including randomized and single-group trials, with information from external experimental or observational data sources. Such efforts are usually motivated by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-23 Lawson Ung , Guanbo Wang , Sebastien Haneuse , Miguel A. Hernán , Issa J. Dahabreh

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-01 Jang-Hyun Kim , Claudia Skok Gibbs , Sangdoo Yun , Hyun Oh Song , Kyunghyun Cho

Despite the increasing relevance of forecasting methods, causal implications of these algorithms remain largely unexplored. This is concerning considering that, even under simplifying assumptions such as causal sufficiency, the statistical…

This article investigates the model-robustness of fixed-effects models for analyzing a broad class of longitudinal cluster trials (CTs) such as stepped-wedge, parallel-with-baseline and crossover designs, encompassing both randomized (CRTs)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 Kenneth M. Lee , Fan Li

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

The paper reviews methods that seek to draw causal inference from observational data and demonstrates how they can be applied to empirical problems in engineering research. It presents a framework for causal identification based on the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-11-28 Daniel J Graham

Amidst rising appreciation for privacy and data usage rights, researchers have increasingly acknowledged the principle of data minimization, which holds that the accessibility, collection, and retention of subjects' data should be kept to…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2021-10-22 Winston Chou

There is growing interest in exploring causal effects in target populations via data combination. However, most approaches are tailored to specific settings and lack comprehensive comparative analyses. In this article, we focus on a typical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is known to model human decisions well, with substantial empirical evidence supporting this claim. CPT works by distorting probabilities and is more general than the classic expected utility and coherent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-03-01 Prashanth L. A. , Cheng Jie , Michael Fu , Steve Marcus , Csaba Szepesvári

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-18 Mayleen Cortez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often include subgroup analyses to assess whether treatment effects vary across pre-specified patient populations. However, these analyses frequently suffer from small sample sizes which limit the power…

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- inferences from a randomized trial to a target population involve conditioning on a large set of covariates that is sufficient for rendering the randomized and non-randomized groups…