相关论文: Probabilistic multivariate early warning signals

Real-world complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit…

Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…

The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…

Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Objective: This work introduces a framework for multivariate time series analysis aimed at detecting and quantifying collective emerging behaviors in the dynamics of physiological networks. Methods: Given a network system mapped by a vector…

The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…

Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…

Complex systems can undergo critical transitions, where slowly changing environmental conditions trigger a sudden shift to a new, potentially catastrophic state. Early warning signals for these events are crucial for decision-making in…

Predicting a driver's cognitive state, or more specifically, modeling a driver's reaction time (RT) in response to the appearance of a potential hazard warrants urgent research. In the last two decades, the electric field that is generated…

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Multivariate data sources with components of different information value seem to appear frequently in practice. Models in which the components change their homogeneity at different times are of significant importance. The fact whether any…

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic…

Time-to-event data are often recorded on a discrete scale with multiple, competing risks as potential causes for the event. In this context, application of continuous survival analysis methods with a single risk suffer from biased…

Ecosystems can undergo sudden shifts to undesirable states, but recent studies with simple single species ecosystems have demonstrated that advance warning can be provided by the slowing down of population dynamics near a tipping point.…

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…