相关论文: The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting…

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are produced in two fundamental ways: at magnetic reconnection sites in solar jets and at collisionless shock waves driven by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). "Impulsive" SEP events, on open field lines…

Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems have become popular in the past two decades due to their ability to "instantly" detect patterns on real-time streams of events. However, there is a lack of methods for forecasting when a pattern might…

The relative abundances of chemical elements and isotopes have been our most effective tool in identifying and understanding energetic particles. The early surprise in solar energetic particles (SEPs) was 1000-fold enhancements in 3He/4He…

We study solar energetic particle (SEP) events during multiple solar eruptions. The analysed sequences, on 24-26 November 2000, 9-13 April 2001, and 22-25 August 2005, consisted of halo-type coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that originated…

We study event-to-event variations in the abundance enhancements of the elements He through Pb for Fe-rich impulsive solar energetic-particle (SEP) events, and their relationship with properties of associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs)…

Solar based electricity generations have experienced strong and impactful growth in recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching, and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting…

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration and…

In this study, we employ the combined charged particle measurements from Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (\ISOIS) onboard the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) onboard the Solar Orbiter (SolO) to…

Recently, we correlated the inferred structure of the solar chromospheric plasma topography with solar wind velocity and composition data measured at 1AU. We now offer a physical justification of these relationships and present initial…

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for socioeconomic activities. While data-driven forecasting demonstrates superior predictive capabilities over traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with reduced computational demands, its…

We present CERES (Calibrated Early-warning and Risk Estimation System), an automated probabilistic forecasting system for acute food insecurity. CERES generates 90-day ahead probability estimates of IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis), Phase 4+…

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the SOHO/ERNE experiment. In…

Exact inference in the linear regression model with spike and slab priors is often intractable. Expectation propagation (EP) can be used for approximate inference. However, the regular sequential form of EP (R-EP) may fail to converge in…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities - deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons -…

We present a 2D kinematic model to study the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) at a shock driven by a coronal mass ejection. The shock is assumed to be spherical about an origin that is offset from the center of the Sun. This…

The acceleration of protons and electrons to high (sometimes GeV/nucleon) energies by solar phenomena is a key component of space weather. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events can damage spacecraft and communications, as well as…

Observation of the solar atmosphere reveals a wide range of motions, from small scale jets and spicules to global-scale coronal mass ejections. Identifying and characterizing these motions are essential to advancing our understanding the…

Solar energy supply is usually highly volatile which limits its integration in the power grid. Accurate probabilistic intraday forecasts of solar resources are essential to increase the share of photovoltaic (PV) energy in the grid and…

Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power grids presents significant challenges due to their intrinsic stochasticity and uncertainty, necessitating the development of new techniques for reliable and efficient forecasting.…