相关论文: Tractable Uncertainty for Structure Learning

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to…

The aim of this paper is to discuss a recent result which shows that probabilistic inference in the presence of (unknown) causal mechanisms can be tractable for models that have traditionally been viewed as intractable. This result was…

Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational…

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Without any assumptions about data generation, multiple causal models may explain our observations equally well. To avoid selecting a single arbitrary model that could result in unsafe decisions if it does not match reality, it is therefore…

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches…

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are powerful probabilistic models that enable exact and tractable inference, making them highly suitable for probabilistic reasoning and inference tasks. While dominant in neural networks, representation…

Bayesian causal structure learning aims to learn a posterior distribution over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and the mechanisms that define the relationship between parent and child variables. By taking a Bayesian approach, it is possible…

Many data management applications must deal with data which is uncertain, incomplete, or noisy. However, on existing uncertain data representations, we cannot tractably perform the important query evaluation tasks of determining query…

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Bayesian causal discovery offers the power to quantify epistemic uncertainties among a broad range of structurally diverse causal theories potentially explaining the data, represented in forms of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However,…

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) has been widely employed to represent directional relationships among a set of collected nodes. Yet, the available data in one single study is often limited for accurate DAG reconstruction, whereas heterogeneous…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) represent a probability distribution as a computational graph. Enforcing structural properties on these graphs guarantees that several inference scenarios become tractable. Among these properties, structured…

Precise knowledge of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is assumed for standard approaches towards valid adjustment set selection for unbiased estimation, but in practice, the DAG is often inferred from data or expert knowledge,…

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

This paper presents a computational framework that generates ensemble predictive mechanics models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We first develop a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data measured…

Probabilistic sentential decision diagrams are logic circuits where the inputs of disjunctive gates are annotated by probability values. They allow for a compact representation of joint probability mass functions defined over sets of…

Causal theory is now widely developed with many applications to medicine and public health. However within the discipline of reliability, although causation is a key concept in this field, there has been much less theoretical attention. In…

Estimating the structure of Bayesian networks as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data is a fundamental challenge, particularly in causal discovery. Bayesian approaches excel by quantifying uncertainty and addressing…