相关论文: Advanced testing of low, medium and high ECS CMIP6…

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $^\circ$C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium…

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…

The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…

We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…

Earth Global and regional effective thermal "conductance" G(eff) (in W/(m^2 C) and often labeled lambda in climate research) and the related Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) are evaluated by applying a modified version of the Energy…

Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…

Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…

Accurate regional climate forecast calls for high-resolution downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs). This work presents a deep-learning-based multi-model evaluation and downscaling framework ranking 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison…

Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…

System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…

Effective water resource management depends on accurate projections of flows in water channels. For projected climate data, use of different General Circulation Models (GCM) simulates contrasting results. This study shows selection of GCM…

Various regions in the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes have seen pronounced trends in upper-atmosphere summer circulation and surface temperature extremes over recent decades (since 1979). Several of these regional trends lie outside the…

The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…

Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…

Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy's (SJK) (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102530) critique of Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716) is flawed. Their assessment of the error of the ERA-T2m 2011-2021 mean (about 0.10 {\deg}C)…