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We consider a nonparametric regression model with continuous endogenous independent variables when only discrete instruments are available that are independent of the error term. Although this framework is very relevant for applied…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-10-18 Samuele Centorrino , Frédérique Fève , Jean-Pierre Florens

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-07 Dominik Rothenhäusler

The R-learner is widely used in causal inference due to its flexibility and efficiency in estimating the conditional average treatment effect. However, extending the R-learner framework from binary to continuous treatments introduces a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-21 Yichi Zhang , Dehan Kong , Shu Yang

We develop and analyze algorithms for instrumental variable regression by viewing the problem as a conditional stochastic optimization problem. In the context of least-squares instrumental variable regression, our algorithms neither require…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-31 Xuxing Chen , Abhishek Roy , Yifan Hu , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian

Missing data is a major challenge in clinical research. In electronic medical records, often a large fraction of the values in laboratory tests and vital signs are missing. The missingness can lead to biased estimates and limit our ability…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-18 Omer Noy , Ron Shamir

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-12-05 Isaiah Andrews , Timothy B. Armstrong

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-13 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Wentao Gao , Thuc Duy Le

Multiple regression has been the go-to method for data analysis for generations of scholars due to its transparency, interpretability, and desirable theoretical properties. However, the method's simplicity precludes the discovery of complex…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-02 Marc Ratkovic , Dustin Tingley

The estimation of the causal effect of an endogenous treatment based on an instrumental variable (IV) is often complicated by attrition, sample selection, or non-response in the outcome of interest. To tackle the latter problem, the latent…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-06-04 Martin Huber

We suggest double/debiased machine learning estimators of direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under a selection-on-observables assumption. This permits disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment at a specific outcome…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-07-04 Yu-Chin Hsu , Martin Huber , Yu-Min Yen

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods often struggle with weak or invalid instruments and rely heavily on external data. We introduce a Synthetic Instrumental Variable (SIV) approach that constructs valid instruments using only…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Ratbek Dzhumashev , Ainura Tursunalieva

Algorithmic decision making process now affects many aspects of our lives. Standard tools for machine learning, such as classification and regression, are subject to the bias in data, and thus direct application of such off-the-shelf tools…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-10-16 Junpei Komiyama , Hajime Shimao

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

The least-squares estimator has achieved considerable success in learning linear dynamical systems from a single trajectory of length $T$. While it attains an optimal error of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ under independent zero-mean noise, it…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-02-23 Jihun Kim , Javad Lavaei

Loss of trainability refers to a phenomenon in continual learning where parameter updates no longer make progress on the optimization objective, so accuracy stalls or degrades as the learning problem changes over time. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-11 Gunbir Singh Baveja , Alex Lewandowski , Mark Schmidt

Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-28 Feng Xie , Zhengming Chen , Shanshan Luo , Wang Miao , Ruichu Cai , Zhi Geng

Many empirical applications estimate causal effects of a continuous endogenous variable (treatment) using a binary instrument. Estimation is typically done through linear 2SLS. This approach requires a mean treatment change and causal…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-02-28 Yingying Dong , Ying-Ying Lee

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Researchers often use instrumental variables (IV) models to investigate the causal relationship between an endogenous variable and an outcome while controlling for covariates. When an exogenous variable is unavailable to serve as the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-18 Moses Stewart