相关论文: A Comparative Study on Forecasting of Retail Sales

This paper introduces an approach to reference class selection in distributional forecasting with an application to corporate sales growth rates using several co-variates as reference variables, that are implicit predictors. The method can…

Time series forecasting is essential for agents to make decisions. Traditional approaches rely on statistical methods to forecast given past numeric values. In practice, end-users often rely on visualizations such as charts and plots to…

In this work, we address time-series forecasting as a computer vision task. We capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image. This approach results in predicting distributions as opposed to pointwise…

Evaluating retail strategies before deployment is difficult, as outcomes are determined across multiple stages, from seller-side persuasion through buyer-seller interaction to purchase decisions. However, existing retail simulators capture…

Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of…

This study assessed the effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting poverty levels in the Philippines using five boosting algorithms: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), CatBoosting (CatBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Light…

The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption…

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…

Bank credit risk is a significant challenge in modern financial transactions, and the ability to identify qualified credit card holders among a large number of applicants is crucial for the profitability of a bank'sbank's credit card…

Predicting the price correlation of two assets for future time periods is important in portfolio optimization. We apply LSTM recurrent neural networks (RNN) in predicting the stock price correlation coefficient of two individual stocks.…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

Demand forecasting of hierarchical components is essential in manufacturing. However, its discussion in the machine-learning literature has been limited, and judgemental forecasts remain pervasive in the industry. Demand planners require…

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the…

Premium automotive manufacturers face increasingly complex forecasting challenges due to high product variety, sparse variant-level data, and volatile market dynamics. This study addresses monthly automobile demand forecasting across a…

Our goal is to build general representation (embedding) for each user and each product item across Alibaba's businesses, including Taobao and Tmall which are among the world's biggest e-commerce websites. The representation of users and…

Forecasting meteorological variables is challenging due to the complexity of their processes, requiring advanced models for accuracy. Accurate precipitation forecasts are vital for society. Reliable predictions help communities mitigate…

Fashion retailers require accurate demand forecasts for the next season, almost a year in advance, for demand management and supply chain planning purposes. Accurate forecasts are important to ensure retailers' profitability and to reduce…

Probabilistic forecasting is essential for modern risk management, allowing decision-makers to quantify uncertainty in critical systems. This paper tackles this challenge using the volatile REFIT household dataset, which is complicated by a…

This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioural bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each…

The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…