相关论文: Extremely expensive likelihoods: A variational-Bay…

Composite likelihood provides approximate inference when the full likelihood is intractable and sub-likelihood functions of marginal events can be evaluated relatively easily. It has been successfully applied for many complex models.…

Challenges in multi-fidelity modeling relate to accuracy, uncertainty estimation and high-dimensionality. A novel additive structure is introduced in which the highest fidelity solution is written as a sum of the lowest fidelity solution…

We present exact non-Gaussian joint likelihoods for auto- and cross-correlation functions on arbitrarily masked spherical Gaussian random fields. Our considerations apply to spin-0 as well as spin-2 fields but are demonstrated here for the…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to…

Non-Gaussian likelihoods are essential for modelling complex real-world observations but pose significant computational challenges in learning and inference. Even with Gaussian priors, non-Gaussian likelihoods often lead to analytically…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

Posterior predictive p-values (ppps) have become popular tools for Bayesian model assessment, being general-purpose and easy to use. However, interpretation can be difficult because their distribution is not uniform under the hypothesis…

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

A natural way to quantify uncertainties in Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) is through Bayesian methods. That said, sampling from the joint posterior distribution of GMMs via standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) imposes several…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

The radio astronomy community is adopting deep learning techniques to deal with the huge data volumes expected from the next-generation of radio observatories. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a principled way to model uncertainty in…

Non-Gaussian statistics of the projected weak lensing field are powerful estimators that can outperform the constraining power of the two-point functions in inferring cosmological parameters. This is because these estimators extract the…

Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…

Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score…

Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or…