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Predictive models are typically trained on historical data to predict future outcomes. While it is commonly assumed that training on more historical data would improve model performance and robustness, data distribution shifts over time may…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2025-09-05 Chengyuan Yao , Yunxuan Tang , Christopher Brooks , Rene F. Kizilcec , Renzhe Yu

The use of neural networks has been very successful in a wide variety of applications. However, it has recently been observed that it is difficult to generalize the performance of neural networks under the condition of distributional shift.…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2022-09-20 Dangxing Chen

Machine learning and data mining techniques have been used extensively in order to detect credit card frauds. However purchase behaviour and fraudster strategies may change over time. This phenomenon is named dataset shift or concept drift…

Data shift is a phenomenon present in many real-world applications, and while there are multiple methods attempting to detect shifts, the task of localizing and correcting the features originating such shifts has not been studied in depth.…

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

Datasets for training recommender systems are often subject to distribution shift induced by users' and recommenders' selection biases. In this paper, we study the impact of selection bias on datasets with different quantization. We then…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2022-12-29 Fengyu Li , Sarah Dean

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-28 Yu-Jie Zhang , Zhen-Yu Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-03 Rasool Fakoor , Jonas Mueller , Zachary C. Lipton , Pratik Chaudhari , Alexander J. Smola

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2026-03-10 Srikumar Nayak

Scoring models support decision-making in financial institutions. Their estimation and evaluation are based on the data of previously accepted applicants with known repayment behavior. This creates sampling bias: the available labeled data…

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-18 Huaxiu Yao , Caroline Choi , Bochuan Cao , Yoonho Lee , Pang Wei Koh , Chelsea Finn

Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-29 Jianwei Peng , Stefan Lessmann

Recently, Saeb et al (2017) showed that, in diagnostic machine learning applications, having data of each subject randomly assigned to both training and test sets (record-wise data split) can lead to massive underestimation of the…

Machine learning on data streams is increasingly more present in multiple domains. However, there is often data distribution shift that can lead machine learning models to make incorrect decisions. While there are automatic methods to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-02 João Palmeiro , Beatriz Malveiro , Rita Costa , David Polido , Ricardo Moreira , Pedro Bizarro

The deep learning approach to detecting malicious software (malware) is promising but has yet to tackle the problem of dataset shift, namely that the joint distribution of examples and their labels associated with the test set is different…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2021-12-15 Deqiang Li , Tian Qiu , Shuo Chen , Qianmu Li , Shouhuai Xu

In many machine learning for healthcare tasks, standard datasets are constructed by amassing data across many, often fundamentally dissimilar, sources. But when does adding more data help, and when does it hinder progress on desired model…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-09 Judy Hanwen Shen , Inioluwa Deborah Raji , Irene Y. Chen

The digitalization of credit scoring has become essential for financial institutions and commercial banks, especially in the era of digital transformation. Machine learning techniques are commonly used to evaluate customers'…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-06 Huyen Giang Thi Thu , Thang Viet Doan , Ha-Bang Ban , Tai Le Quy

Machine learning brings the hope of finding new biomarkers extracted from cohorts with rich biomedical measurements. A good biomarker is one that gives reliable detection of the corresponding condition. However, biomarkers are often…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-22 Jéroôme Dockès , Gaël Varoquaux , Jean-Baptiste Poline

Continuous machine learning pipelines are common in industrial settings where models are periodically trained on data streams. Unfortunately, concept drifts may occur in data streams where the joint distribution of the data X and label y,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-18 Minsu Kim , Seong-Hyeon Hwang , Steven Euijong Whang

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-30 Hui Xu , Robert Tibshirani
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