相关论文: Model-free Bootstrap Prediction Regions for Multiv…

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on…

We propose an online algorithm for tracking a multidimensional time-varying parameter of a time series, which is also allowed to be a predictable process with respect to the underlying time series. The algorithm is driven by a gain…

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

In statistical research there usually exists a choice between structurally simpler or more complex models. We argue that, even if a more complex, locally stationary time series model were true, then a simple, stationary time series model…

Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

We develop fast distribution-free conformal prediction algorithms for obtaining multivalid coverage on exchangeable data in the batch setting. Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1)…

AI/ML methods are increasingly used in economics to generate binary variables (or labels) via classification algorithms. When these generated variables are included as covariates in regressions, even small misclassification errors can…

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Modeling Irregularly-sampled and Multivariate Time Series (IMTS) is crucial across a variety of applications where different sets of variates may be missing at different time-steps due to sensor malfunctions or high data acquisition costs.…

We compare the model-free reinforcement learning with the model-based approaches through the lens of the expressive power of neural networks for policies, $Q$-functions, and dynamics. We show, theoretically and empirically, that even for…

In this paper, we present a novel feature extraction procedure to predict interval-valued time series by combing transfer learning and imaging approaches. Initially, we represent interval-valued time series using a bivariate point-valued…

This paper introduces new methods for constructing prediction intervals using quantile-based techniques. The procedures are developed for both classical (homoscedastic) autoregressive models and modern quantile autoregressive models. They…

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

In small area estimation, it is a smart strategy to rely on data measured over time. However, linear mixed models struggle to properly capture time dependencies when the number of lags is large. Given the lack of published studies…

This paper introduces a novel, computationally-efficient algorithm for predictive inference (PI) that requires no distributional assumptions on the data and can be computed faster than existing bootstrap-type methods for neural networks.…

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Diffusion models achieve remarkable success in processing images and text, and have been extended to special domains such as time series forecasting (TSF). Existing diffusion-based approaches for TSF primarily focus on modeling…

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…