相关论文: NeuralProphet: Explainable Forecasting at Scale

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior…

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like…

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose…

We investigate non-adaptive algorithms for matroid prophet inequalities. Matroid prophet inequalities have been considered resolved since 2012 when [KW12] introduced thresholds that guarantee a tight 2-approximation to the prophet; however,…

Machine learning algorithms often assume that training samples are independent. When data points are connected by a network, the induced dependency between samples is both a challenge, reducing effective sample size, and an opportunity to…

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in contemporary engineering information systems for supporting decision-making across various industries, where Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been widely adopted due to their capability…

Now, the pre-training technique is ubiquitous in natural language processing field. ProphetNet is a pre-training based natural language generation method which shows powerful performance on English text summarization and question generation…

Time series forecasting aims to model temporal dependencies among variables for future state inference, holding significant importance and widespread applications in real-world scenarios. Although deep learning-based methods have achieved…

Modern neural network architectures can leverage large amounts of data to generalize well within the training distribution. However, they are less capable of systematic generalization to data drawn from unseen but related distributions, a…

Hashtag trends ignite campaigns, shift public opinion, and steer millions of dollars in advertising spend, yet forecasting which tag goes viral is elusive. Classical regressors digest surface features but ignore context, while large…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fundamental drivers of forecast accuracy. Here, we demonstrate…

With the rapid growth of renewable energy, lots of small photovoltaic (PV) prosumers emerge. Due to the uncertainty of solar power generation, there is a need for aggregated prosumers to predict solar power generation and whether solar…

In this paper, we introduce ProNet, an novel deep learning approach designed for multi-horizon time series forecasting, adaptively blending autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) strategies. Our method involves dividing the…

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…

Convolutional neural network (CNN) models have seen advanced improvements in performance in various domains, but lack of interpretability is a major barrier to assurance and regulation during operation for acceptance and deployment of…

Multi-horizon probabilistic time series forecasting has wide applicability to real-world tasks such as demand forecasting. Recent work in neural time-series forecasting mainly focus on the use of Seq2Seq architectures. For example,…

Designing early warning system for precipitation requires accurate short-term forecasting system. Climate change has led to an increase in frequency of extreme weather events, and hence such systems can prevent disasters and loss of life.…

Obtaining accurate probabilistic forecasts is an operational challenge in many applications, such as energy management, climate forecasting, supply chain planning, and resource allocation. Many of these applications present a natural…

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…