相关论文: Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signa…

We introduce a simple time-triggered protocol to achieve communication-efficient non-Bayesian learning over a network. Specifically, we consider a scenario where a group of agents interact over a graph with the aim of discerning the true…

This paper focuses on the convergence of infor- mation in distributed systems of agents communicating over a network. The information on which the convergence is sought is not represented by real numbers, rather by sets of real numbers,…

In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I…

We consider the estimation of a signal from the knowledge of its noisy linear random Gaussian projections. A few examples where this problem is relevant are compressed sensing, sparse superposition codes, and code division multiple access.…

Complex decision-making systems rarely have direct access to the current state of the world and they instead rely on opinions to form an understanding of what the ground truth could be. Even in problems where experts provide opinions…

In the consensus model with bounded confidence, studied by Deffuant et al. (2000), two randomly selected people who differ not too much in their opinion both shift their opinions towards each other. Now we restrict this exchange of…

We consider the problem of subspace estimation in situations where the number of available snapshots and the observation dimension are comparable in magnitude. In this context, traditional subspace methods tend to fail because the…

A distributed consensus algorithm for estimating the maximum value of the initial measurements in a sensor network with communication noise is proposed. In the absence of communication noise, max estimation can be done by updating the state…

To obtain reliable results of expertise, which usually use individual and group expert pairwise comparisons, it is important to summarize (aggregate) expert estimates provided that they are sufficiently consistent. There are several ways to…

Sparse MoE routing fails at domain transitions, where the current token belongs to one distribution and the next to another. In a controlled experiment (4 experts, 5 seeds), standard affinity routing assigns only 0.006 +/- 0.001 probability…

This paper deals with the parametric inference for integrated signals embedded in an additive Gaussian noise and observed at deterministic discrete instants which are not necessarily equidistant. The unknown parameter is multidimensional…

This paper characterizes the conditions under which the observed beliefs of a group of agents are consistent with Bayesian updating. Beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if they arise from the application of Bayes' rule given some…

Motivated by the recent interest in approximate message passing (AMP) for matrix-valued linear observations with superposition of \emph{multiple statistically asymmetric signal sources}, we introduce a multi-source AMP framework in which…

Mutual information is widely used, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of categorical random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the descriptive value, one must consider…

Bayesian error analysis paves the way to the construction of credible and plausible error regions for a point estimator obtained from a given dataset. We introduce the concept of region accuracy for error regions (a generalization of the…

We propose a stochastic model of opinion exchange in networks. A finite set of agents is organized in a fixed network structure. There is a binary state of the world and each agent receives a private signal on the state. We model beliefs as…

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational…

In the compromise model of Deffuant et al., opinions are real numbers between 0 and 1 and two agents are compatible if the difference of their opinions is smaller than the confidence bound parameter \epsilon. The opinions of a randomly…

The setting of a right-censored random sample subject to contamination is considered. In various fields, expert information is often available and used to overcome the contamination. This paper integrates expert knowledge into the…

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…