相关论文: Likelihood-Free Inference in State-Space Models wi…

An inference method for Gaussian process augmented state-space models are presented. This class of grey-box models enables domain knowledge to be incorporated in the inference process to guarantee a minimum of performance, still they are…

We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the transfer function, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is state-free: unlike other proposed…

Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from…

Likelihood-free inference is concerned with the estimation of the parameters of a non-differentiable stochastic simulator that best reproduce real observations. In the absence of a likelihood function, most of the existing inference methods…

Likelihood-free inference (LFI) methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, have become commonplace for conducting inference in complex models. Many approaches are based on summary statistics or discrepancies derived from synthetic…

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Bayesian analysis of state-space models includes computing the posterior distribution of the system's parameters as well as filtering, smoothing, and predicting the system's latent states. When the latent states wander around $\mathbb{R}^n$…

Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering…

Likelihood-free inference provides a framework for performing rigorous Bayesian inference using only forward simulations, properly accounting for all physical and observational effects that can be successfully included in the simulations.…

Maximum likelihood constraint inference is a powerful technique for identifying unmodeled constraints that affect the behavior of a demonstrator acting under a known objective function. However, it was originally formulated only for…

Bayesian inference in complex generative models is often obstructed by the absence of tractable likelihoods and the infeasibility of computing gradients of high-dimensional simulators. Existing likelihood-free methods for generalized…

State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

Bayesian inference is a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty. The practitioner can perform an initial assumption for the physical phenomenon they want to model (prior belief), collect some data and then adjust the initial…

Effective characterisation of the brain grey matter cytoarchitecture with quantitative sensitivity to soma density and volume remains an unsolved challenge in diffusion MRI (dMRI). Solving the problem of relating the dMRI signal with…

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

In many statistical problems, the data distribution is specified through a generative process for which the likelihood function is analytically intractable, yet inference on the associated model parameters remains of primary interest. We…

Approaches to Bayesian inference for problems with intractable likelihoods have become increasingly important in recent years. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and "likelihood free" Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are popular…

Probabilistic and set-based methods are two approaches for model invalidation, parameter and state estimation. Both classes of methods use different types of data, i.e. deterministic or probabilistic data, which allow different statements…