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Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2022-09-13 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-12 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-28 Temitope Adeyeha , Chetraj Pandey , Berkay Aydin

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2024-10-22 Grégoire Francisco , Sabrina Guastavino , Teresa Barata , João Fernandes , Dario Del Moro

We attempt to forecast M-and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-01-09 Monica G. Bobra , Sebastien Couvidat

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2023-06-21 Varad Deshmukh , Srinivas Baskar , Elizabeth Bradley , Thomas Berger , James D. Meiss

Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2024-05-28 Yasser Abduallah , Jason T. L. Wang

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2026-05-19 Limin Zhao , Xingyao Chen , Xiaoshuai Zhu , Dong Zhao , and Yihua Yan

Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-09-08 Yasser Abduallah , Jason T. L. Wang , Yang Nie , Chang Liu , Haimin Wang

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2019-10-09 Cristina Campi , Federico Benvenuto , Anna Maria Massone , D Shaun Bloomfield , Manolis K Georgoulis , Michele Piana

In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Chetraj Pandey , Temitope Adeyeha , Jinsu Hong , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

We describe here the application of a machine learning method for flare forecasting using vectors of properties extracted from images provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). We also…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2019-07-17 Michele Piana , Cristina Campi , Federico Benvenuto , Sabrina Guastavano , Anna Maria Massone

Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence,…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2017-07-26 Chang Liu , Na Deng , Jason T. L. Wang , Haimin Wang

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-05-27 Xiantong Wang , Yang Chen , Gabor Toth , Ward B. Manchester , Tamas I. Gombosi , Alfred O. Hero , Zhenbang Jiao , Hu Sun , Meng Jin , Yang Liu

This paper contributes to the growing body of research on deep learning methods for solar flare prediction, primarily focusing on highly overlooked near-limb flares and utilizing the attribution methods to provide a post hoc qualitative…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-27 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Solar flares - bursts of high-energy radiation responsible for severe space-weather effects - are a consequence of the occasional destabilization of magnetic fields rooted in active regions (ARs). The complexity of AR evolution is a barrier…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2019-05-27 Dattaraj B. Dhuri , Shravan M. Hanasoge , Mark C. M. Cheung

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2017-02-01 N. Nishizuka , K. Sugiura , Y. Kubo , M. Den , S. Watari , M. Ishii

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin
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