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Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

In this paper we combine the Alias method with the concept of systematic sampling, a method commonly used in particle filters for efficient low-variance resampling. The proposed method allows very fast sampling from a discrete distribution:…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2025-09-30 Ilari Vallivaara , Katja Poikselkä , Pauli Rikula , Juha Röning

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

概率论 · 数学 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Variational inference (VI) is a technique to approximate difficult to compute posteriors by optimization. In contrast to MCMC, VI scales to many observations. In the case of complex posteriors, however, state-of-the-art VI approaches often…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-26 Oliver Dürr , Stephan Hörling , Daniel Dold , Ivonne Kovylov , Beate Sick

In this contribution, we propose a new computationally efficient method to combine Variational Inference (VI) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This approach can be used with generic MCMC kernels, but is especially well suited to…

Variational Inequality (VI) problems have attracted great interest in the machine learning (ML) community due to their application in adversarial and multi-agent training. Despite its relevance in ML, the oft-used strong-monotonicity and…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-02-09 Daniil Vankov , Angelia Nedich , Lalitha Sankar

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-12 Denis Blessing , Xiaogang Jia , Johannes Esslinger , Francisco Vargas , Gerhard Neumann

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Many methods for machine learning rely on approximate inference from intractable probability distributions. Variational inference approximates such distributions by tractable models that can be subsequently used for approximate inference.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-08 Oleg Arenz , Mingjun Zhong , Gerhard Neumann

We describe a very simple method for `consistent sampling' that allows for sampling with replacement. The method extends previous approaches to consistent sampling, which assign a pseudorandom real number to each element, and sample those…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2018-08-31 Ronald L. Rivest

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2022-01-26 Geetakrishnasai Gunapati , Anirudh Jain , P. K. Srijith , Shantanu Desai

In this paper we first present a novel operator extrapolation (OE) method for solving deterministic variational inequality (VI) problems. Similar to the gradient (operator) projection method, OE updates one single search sequence by solving…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-06-21 Georgios Kotsalis , Guanghui Lan , Tianjiao Li

Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower…

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-06 Xiang Wan , Wenqian Wang , Jiming Liu , Tiejun Tong

Given an intractable target density $p$, variational inference (VI) attempts to find the best approximation $q$ from a tractable family $Q$. This is typically done by minimizing the exclusive Kullback-Leibler divergence, $\text{KL}(q||p)$.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Charles C. Margossian , Lawrence K. Saul

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

In this paper, we propose a new statistical inference method for massive data sets, which is very simple and efficient by combining divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood. Compared with two popular methods (the bag of little…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-21 Xuejun Ma , Shaochen Wang , Wang Zhou
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