相关论文: Feature Selection on a Flare Forecasting Testbed: …

We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the {\sl Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)} over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events…

Feature extraction methods help in dimensionality reduction and capture relevant information. In time series forecasting (TSF), features can be used as auxiliary information to achieve better accuracy. Traditionally, features used in TSF…

Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…

Multi-task and few-shot time series forecasting tasks are commonly encountered in scenarios such as the launch of new products in different cities. However, traditional time series forecasting methods suffer from insufficient historical…

In this dataset we provide a comprehensive collection of magnetograms (images quantifying the strength of the magnetic field) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The dataset…

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…

The explosion of data in recent years has generated an increasing need for new analysis techniques in order to extract knowledge from massive datasets. Machine learning has proved particularly useful to perform this task. Fully automatized…

We describe here the application of a machine learning method for flare forecasting using vectors of properties extracted from images provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). We also…

We have developed UFCORIN, a platform for studying and automating space weather prediction. Using our system we have tested 6,160 different combinations of SDO/HMI data as input data, and simulated the prediction of GOES X-ray flux for 2…

Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this…

In this paper, we apply the Feature Space Decomposition (FSD) method developed in [LS24, GLS25, LSSW26, ALSS26] to obtain, under fairly general conditions, matching upper and lower bounds for the population excess risk of spectral methods…

An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable…

Along with the flourish of the information age, massive amounts of data are generated day by day. Due to the large-scale and high-dimensional characteristics of these data, it is often difficult to achieve better decision-making in…

Solar flare forecasting research using machine learning (ML) has focused on high resolution magnetogram data from the SDO/HMI era covering Solar Cycle 24 and the start of Solar Cycle 25, with some efforts looking back to SOHO/MDI for data…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting. Their prediction depends on various factors including source eruptions. In the present work, we…

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points…

Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) -- a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is…

Feature selection is an important process in machine learning. It builds an interpretable and robust model by selecting the features that contribute the most to the prediction target. However, most mature feature selection algorithms,…