相关论文: Bayes Linear Emulation of Simulated Crop Yield

The increase in complexity of autonomous systems is accompanied by a need of data-driven development and validation strategies. Advances in computer graphics and cloud clusters have opened the way to massive parallel high fidelity…

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…

Computer experiments with both quantitative and qualitative (QQ) inputs are commonly used in science and engineering applications. Constructing desirable emulators for such computer experiments remains a challenging problem. In this…

The necessity for complex calculations in high-energy physics and large-scale data analysis has led to the development of computing grids, such as the ALICE computing grid at CERN. These grids outperform traditional supercomputers but…

The importance of accurate soil moisture data for the development of modern closed-loop irrigation systems cannot be overstated. Due to the diversity of soil, it is difficult to obtain an accurate model for agro-hydrological system. In this…

There has been much recent interest in modifying Bayesian inference for misspecified models so that it is useful for specific purposes. One popular modified Bayesian inference method is "cutting feedback" which can be used when the model…

In applications of linear mixed-effects models, experimenters often desire uncertainty quantification for random quantities, like predicted treatment effects for unobserved individuals or groups. For example, consider an agricultural…

Machine learning techniques are powerful tools for construction of emulators for complex systems. We explore different machine learning methods and conceptual methodologies, ranging from functional approximations to dynamical…

Nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) remain a major challenge for molecular simulations, as rigorous treatment requires imaginary-time path-integral methods with heavy computational overhead. Neglecting NQEs leads to systematic errors in…

Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

The challenge of optimal design of experiments (DOE) pervades materials science, physics, chemistry, and biology. Bayesian optimization has been used to address this challenge in vast sample spaces, although it requires framing experimental…

We consider Bayesian design of experiments problems in which we maximise the prior expectation of a utility function over a set of permutations, for example when sequencing a number of tasks to perform. When the number of tasks is large and…

Context: Quantitative spectroscopy of luminous blue stars relies on detailed non-LTE model atmospheres whose increasing physical realism makes direct, iterative analyses computationally demanding. Aims: We introduce MAUI (Machine-learning…

The global climate has underscored the need for effective policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, including those resulting from agricultural expansion, which is regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) across…

The functional linear regression model is a common tool to determine the relationship between a scalar outcome and a functional predictor seen as a function of time. This paper focuses on the Bayesian estimation of the support of the…