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Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Causal analysis for time series data, in particular estimating individualized treatment effect (ITE), is a key task in many real-world applications, such as finance, retail, healthcare, etc. Real-world time series can include large-scale,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Defu Cao , James Enouen , Yujing Wang , Xiangchen Song , Chuizheng Meng , Hao Niu , Yan Liu

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Additive regression models are actively researched in the statistical field because of their usefulness in the analysis of responses determined by non-linear relationships with multivariate predictors. In this kind of statistical models,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-10 German A. Schnaidt Grez , Brani Vidakovic

This paper develops a novel approach to random effects estimation and individual-level forecasting in micropanels, targeting individual accuracy rather than aggregate performance. The conventional shrinkage methods used in the literature,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-02 Raffaella Giacomini , Sokbae Lee , Silvia Sarpietro

Estimating the effect of medical treatments on subject responses is one of the crucial problems in medical research. Matched-pairs designs are commonly implemented in the field of medical research to eliminate confounding and improve…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-08 Jun Wang , Wei Gao , Man-Lai Tang

Shape-constrained convex regression problem deals with fitting a convex function to the observed data, where additional constraints are imposed, such as component-wise monotonicity and uniform Lipschitz continuity. This paper provides a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-02-27 Meixia Lin , Defeng Sun , Kim-Chuan Toh

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

In estimating the average treatment effect in observational studies, the influence of confounders should be appropriately addressed. To this end, the propensity score is widely used. If the propensity scores are known for all the subjects,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-08 Chengyao Tang , Yi Zhou , Ao Huang , Satoshi Hattori

In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-20 Ganesh Karapakula

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation is an extensively researched problem, with applications in various domains. We model the case where there exists heterogeneous non-compliance to a randomly assigned treatment, a typical situation…

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-11 Clément de Chaisemartin

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

There is growing interest in exploring causal effects in target populations via data combination. However, most approaches are tailored to specific settings and lack comprehensive comparative analyses. In this article, we focus on a typical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Background: Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is used for confounding adjustment in observational studies. Newer weighting methods include energy balancing (EB), kernel optimal matching (KOM), and tailored-loss covariate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-15 Etienne Peyrot , Raphaël Porcher , Francois Petit

We study nonparametric estimation for the partially conditional average treatment effect, defined as the treatment effect function over an interested subset of confounders. We propose a hybrid kernel weighting estimator where the weights…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-08 Jiayi Wang , Raymond K. W. Wong , Shu Yang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Treatment-induced confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects and causal mediation. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce spurious…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-08-24 Geoffrey T. Wodtke , Zahide Alaca , Xiang Zhou
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