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Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-20 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Leveraging the development of structural causal model (SCM), researchers can establish graphical models for exploring the causal mechanisms behind machine learning techniques. As the complexity of machine learning applications rises,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-19 Jiangmeng Li , Bin Qin , Qirui Ji , Yi Li , Wenwen Qiang , Jianwen Cao , Fanjiang Xu

Digital twins are virtual systems designed to predict how a real-world process will evolve in response to interventions. This modelling paradigm holds substantial promise in many applications, but rigorous procedures for assessing their…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-03 Rob Cornish , Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq , Arnaud Doucet , Chris Holmes

Providing explanations about how machine learning algorithms work and/or make particular predictions is one of the main tools that can be used to improve their trusworthiness, fairness and robustness. Among the most intuitive type of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-12 Rubén Ruiz-Torrubiano

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-23 Jingquan Yan , Hao Wang

Nowadays, deep vision models are being widely deployed in safety-critical applications, e.g., autonomous driving, and explainability of such models is becoming a pressing concern. Among explanation methods, counterfactual explanations aim…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-03-27 Mehdi Zemni , Mickaël Chen , Éloi Zablocki , Hédi Ben-Younes , Patrick Pérez , Matthieu Cord

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Moritz Stammel , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Raghav Mehta , Mélanie Roschewitz , Ben Glocker

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi

Explainable recommendation through counterfactual reasoning seeks to identify the influential aspects of items in recommendations, which can then be used as explanations. However, state-of-the-art approaches, which aim to minimize changes…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Yi Yu , Zhenxing Hu

Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

Counterfactual explanations elucidate algorithmic decisions by pointing to scenarios that would have led to an alternative, desired outcome. Giving insight into the model's behavior, they hint users towards possible actions and give grounds…

Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Machine-learning models, which are known to accurately predict patterns from large datasets, are crucial in decision making. Consequently, counterfactual explanations-methods explaining predictions by introducing input perturbations-have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-23 Yuta Sumiya , Hayaru shouno

Counterfactual examples are an appealing class of post-hoc explanations for machine learning models. Given input $x$ of class $y_1$, its counterfactual is a contrastive example $x^\prime$ of another class $y_0$. Current approaches primarily…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-17 Xiaoting Shao , Kristian Kersting

Causal modeling has been recognized as a potential solution to many challenging problems in machine learning (ML). Here, we describe how a recently proposed counterfactual approach developed to deconfound linear structural causal models can…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-23 Elias Chaibub Neto

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-01 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber