相关论文: On Generalized Random Environment INAR Models of H…

A popular and flexible time series model for counts is the generalized integer autoregressive process of order $p$, GINAR($p$). These Markov processes are defined using thinning operators evaluated on past values of the process along with a…

Environmental hazards place certain individuals at disproportionately higher risks. As these hazards increasingly endanger human health, precise identification of the most vulnerable population subgroups is critical for public health.…

An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…

Network time series are becoming increasingly relevant in the study of dynamic processes characterised by a known or inferred underlying network structure. Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) models provide a parsimonious framework…

Existing integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models for count random fields suffer from difficulties in characterizing the stationary marginal distribution and in computing conditional probabilities (as required for likelihood inference).…

A new integer--valued autoregressive process (INAR) with Generalised Lagrangian Katz (GLK) innovations is defined. This process family provides a flexible modelling framework for count data, allowing for under and over--dispersion,…

INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling…

Integer-valued time series are widely present in many fields, such as finance, economics, disease transmission, and traffic flow. With data dimensions surging, the traditional multivariate generalized integer autoregressive (MGINAR) model…

This paper presents a general model framework for detecting the preferential sampling of environmental monitors recording an environmental process across space and/or time. This is achieved by considering the joint distribution of an…

INAR (integer-valued autoregressive) and INGARCH (integer-valued GARCH) models are among the most commonly employed approaches for count time series modelling, but have been studied in largely distinct strands of literature. In this paper,…

A local linear kernel estimator of the regression function x\mapsto g(x):=E[Y_i|X_i=x], x\in R^d, of a stationary (d+1)-dimensional spatial process {(Y_i,X_i),i\in Z^N} observed over a rectangular domain of the form I_n:={i=(i_1,...,i_N)\in…

This article introduces the GNAR package, which fits, predicts, and simulates from a powerful new class of generalised network autoregressive processes. Such processes consist of a multivariate time series along with a real, or inferred,…

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the…

Most of the stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued (INAR(1)) models were developed for a given thinning operator using either the forward approach or the backward approach. In the forward approach the marginal distribution of…

This paper describes a discrete state-space model -- and accompanying methods -- for generative modelling. This model generalises partially observed Markov decision processes to include paths as latent variables, rendering it suitable for…

In this paper, we propose the generalized mixed reduced rank regression method, GMR$^3$ for short. GMR$^3$ is a regression method for a mix of numeric, binary, and ordinal response variables. The predictor variables can be a mix of binary,…

The standard regression tree method applied to observations within clusters poses both methodological and implementation challenges. Effectively leveraging these data requires methods that account for both individual-level and sample-level…

A common approach to analyze count time series is to fit models based on random sum operators. As an alternative, this paper introduces time series models based on a random multiplication operator, which is simply the multiplication of a…

The fundamental task of general density estimation $p(x)$ has been of keen interest to machine learning. In this work, we attempt to systematically characterize methods for density estimation. Broadly speaking, most of the existing methods…

Model-based unsupervised learning, as any learning task, stalls as soon as missing data occurs. This is even more true when the missing data are informative, or said missing not at random (MNAR). In this paper, we propose model-based…