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Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-19 Xinlei Xiong , Wenbo Hu , Shuxun Zhou , Kaifeng Bi , Lingxi Xie , Ying Liu , Richang Hong , Qi Tian

The multi-task learning (MTL) paradigm can be traced back to an early paper of Caruana (1997) in which it was argued that data from multiple tasks can be used with the aim to obtain a better performance over learning each task…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-10 Andrea Ponti

Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-20 Nathanael Bosch , Oleksandr Shchur , Nick Erickson , Michael Bohlke-Schneider , Caner Türkmen

Self-supervised representation learning, particularly through contrastive methods like TS2Vec, has advanced the analysis of time series data. However, these models often falter in forecasting tasks because their objective functions…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-01 Ganeshan Niroshan , Uthayasanker Thayasivam

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-11 Dimitris Bertsimas , Leonard Boussioux

It is well recognized that the project productivity is a key driver in estimating software project effort from Use Case Point size metric at early software development stages. Although, there are few proposed models for predicting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-12-18 Mohammad Azzeh , Ali Bou Nassif , Shadi Banitaan , Cuauhtemoc Lopez-Martin

When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as simulators of large-scale…

Ensemble methods have played a crucial role in achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across various machine learning tasks by leveraging the diversity of features learned by individual models. In Time Series Classification (TSC),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Javidan Abdullayev , Maxime Devanne , Cyril Meyer , Ali Ismail-Fawaz , Jonathan Weber , Germain Forestier

Forecasting the behaviour of complex dynamical systems such as interconnected sensor networks characterized by high-dimensional multivariate time series(MTS) is of paramount importance for making informed decisions and planning for the…

Finding the optimal parameter setting (i.e. the optimal population size, the optimal mutation probability, the optimal evolutionary model etc) for an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) is a difficult task. Instead of evolving only the parameters…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2021-09-29 Mihai Oltean , Crina Groşan

Time series (TS) data are ubiquitous across various application areas, rendering time series forecasting (TSF) a fundamental task. With the astounding advances in large language models (LLMs), a variety of methods have been developed to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-08-25 Zhuomin Chen , Dan Li , Jiahui Zhou , Shunyu Wu , Haozheng Ye , Jian Lou , See-Kiong Ng

Model combination is a powerful approach for achieving superior performance compared to selecting a single model. We study both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of ensembles of Multi-Frequency Echo State Networks (MFESNs),…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-21 Giovanni Ballarin , Lyudmila Grigoryeva , Yui Ching Li

Pre-trained models exhibit strong generalization to various downstream tasks. However, given the numerous models available in the model hub, identifying the most suitable one by individually fine-tuning is time-consuming. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-10 Tengxue Zhang , Biao Ouyang , Yang Shu , Xinyang Chen , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Accurate exploration of protein conformational ensembles is essential for uncovering function but remains hard because molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations suffer from high computational costs and energy-barrier trapping. This paper presents…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-14 Yuancheng Sun , Yuxuan Ren , Zhaoming Chen , Xu Han , Kang Liu , Qiwei Ye

Ensemble learning is characterized by flexibility, high precision, and refined structure. As a critical component within computational finance, option pricing with machine learning requires both high predictive accuracy and reduced…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-09 Zeyuan Li , Qingdao Huang

This paper presents EvolveMT for efficiently combining multiple machine translation (MT) engines. The proposed system selects the output from a single engine for each segment by utilizing online learning techniques to predict the most…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-06-22 Kamer Ali Yuksel , Ahmet Gunduz , Mohamed Al-Badrashiny , Shreyas Sharma , Hassan Sawaf

Daily streamflow forecasting through data-driven approaches is traditionally performed using a single machine learning algorithm. Existing applications are mostly restricted to examination of few case studies, not allowing accurate…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-24 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous , Andreas Langousis

Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for spatial prediction, but their computational cost limits applicability to large-scale data with large sample size $n$. Predictive processes (PPs), a popular low-rank approximation, mitigate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-23 Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM,…

We present XEM, an eXplainable-by-design Ensemble method for Multivariate time series classification. XEM relies on a new hybrid ensemble method that combines an explicit boosting-bagging approach to handle the bias-variance trade-off faced…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-16 Kevin Fauvel , Élisa Fromont , Véronique Masson , Philippe Faverdin , Alexandre Termier