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There is a brief description of the probabilistic causal graph model for representing, reasoning with, and learning causal structure using Bayesian networks. It is then argued that this model is closely related to how humans reason with and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-08 Scott B. Morris , Doug Cork , Richard E. Neapolitan

In recurrent event studies, panel binary data arise when subjects are observed at discrete time points and only the recurrent event status within each observation window is recorded. Such data frequently occur in longitudinal studies due to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Pavithra Hariharan , P. G. Sankaran

In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-24 Peter J. F. Lucas , Eleonora Zullo , Fabio Stella

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Sainyam Galhotra , Joseph Y. Halpern

Despite the increasing relevance of forecasting methods, causal implications of these algorithms remain largely unexplored. This is concerning considering that, even under simplifying assumptions such as causal sufficiency, the statistical…

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

We present a Bayesian procedure for estimation of pairwise intervention effects in a high-dimensional system of categorical variables. We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown causal Bayesian network for which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-02 Vera Kvisgaard , Johan Pensar

In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-26 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Due to the challenge posed by multi-source and heterogeneous data collected from diverse environments, causal relationships among features can exhibit variations influenced by different time spans, regions, or strategies. This diversity…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Lu Liu , Yang Tang , Kexuan Zhang , Qiyu Sun

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-23 Andrew Gelman , Matthijs Vákár

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in causal reasoning for designing fair decision-making systems due to its compatibility with legal frameworks, interpretability for human stakeholders, and robustness to spurious…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-27 Aida Rahmattalabi , Alice Xiang

We address modelling and computational issues for multiple treatment effect inference under many potential confounders. Our main contribution is providing a trade-off between preventing the omission of relevant confounders, while not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , David Rossell , Miquel Torrens-i-Dinarès

Causal inference has been a pivotal challenge across diverse domains such as medicine and economics, demanding a complicated integration of human knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and data mining capabilities. Recent advancements in…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Jing Ma

This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-20 Masahiro Tanaka

Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-19 Habibolla Latifizadeh , Anika C. Pirkey , Alanna Gould , David J. Klinke

The causal effect of an intervention (treatment/exposure) on an outcome can be estimated by: i) specifying knowledge about the data-generating process; ii) assessing under what assumptions a target quantity, such as for example a causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-05 Michael Schomaker

When performing regression or classification, we are interested in the conditional probability distribution for an outcome or class variable Y given a set of explanatoryor input variables X. We consider Bayesian models for this task. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-02-08 David Heckerman , Christopher Meek

This paper proposes a simple, novel, and fully-Bayesian approach for causal inference in partially linear models with high-dimensional control variables. Off-the-shelf machine learning methods can introduce biases in the causal parameter…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-19 Francis J. DiTraglia , Laura Liu