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Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-30 Jenna M. Landy , Dafne Zorzetto , Roberta De Vito , Giovanni Parmigiani

State-of-the-art AI models largely lack an understanding of the cause-effect relationship that governs human understanding of the real world. Consequently, these models do not generalize to unseen data, often produce unfair results, and are…

We propose a machine-learning tool that yields causal inference on text in randomized trials. Based on a simple econometric framework in which text may capture outcomes of interest, our procedure addresses three questions: First, is the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-04 Iman Modarressi , Jann Spiess , Amar Venugopal

Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance on many supervised learning tasks. However, prior evidence suggests that these models may learn to rely on shortcut biases or spurious correlations (intuitively, correlations that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-31 Sindhu C. M. Gowda , Shalmali Joshi , Haoran Zhang , Marzyeh Ghassemi

Integrating data from multiple heterogeneous sources has become increasingly popular to achieve a large sample size and diverse study population. This paper reviews development in causal inference methods that combines multiple datasets…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-05 Xu Shi , Ziyang Pan , Wang Miao

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

We evaluate four computational models of explanation in Bayesian networks by comparing model predictions to human judgments. In two experiments, we present human participants with causal structures for which the models make divergent…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-09-27 Michael Pacer , Joseph Williams , Xi Chen , Tania Lombrozo , Thomas Griffiths

Causal inference, as a major research area in statistics and data science, plays a central role across diverse fields such as medicine, economics, education, and the social sciences. Design-based causal inference begins with randomized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Xin Lu , Wanjia Fu , Hongzi Li , Haoyang Yu , Honghao Zhang , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-13 Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Contribution to the discussion of the paper "Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals" by Peters, B\"uhlmann and Meinshausen, to appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B.

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-05-27 Chris J. Oates , Jessica Kasza , Sach Mukherjee

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

Bayesian networks can be used to extract explanations about the observed state of a subset of variables. In this paper, we explicate the desiderata of an explanation and confront them with the concept of explanation proposed by existing…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-06-18 Ulf Nielsen , Jean-Philippe Pellet , André Elisseeff

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…