相关论文: The Solar Memory From Hours to Decades

Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid.…

We investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7…

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…

The calling card of solar magnetism is the sunspot cycle, during which sunspots regularly reverse their polarity sense every 11 years. However, a number of more complicated time-dependent behaviors have also been identified. In particular,…

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

We extend a previous statistical solar flare study of 155 GOES M- and X-class flares observed with AIA/SDO (Aschwanden 2012) to all 7 coronal wavelengths (94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304, 335 \ang) to test the wavelength-dependence of scaling…

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…

Based on a sample of 1114 flares observed simultaneously in hard X-rays (HXR) by the BATSE instrument and in soft X-rays (SXR) by GOES, we studied several aspects of the Neupert effect and its interpretation in the frame of the…

Solar flares are driven by release of the free magnetic energy and its conversion to other forms of energy -- kinetic, thermal, and nonthermal. Quantification of partitions between these energy components and their evolution is needed to…

Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the…

The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…

Non-potential magnetic energy promptly released in solar flares is converted to other forms of energy. This may include nonthermal energy of flare-accelerated particles, thermal energy of heated flaring plasma, and kinetic energy of…

Solar flares are an abrupt release of magnetic energy in the Sun's atmosphere due to reconnection of the coronal magnetic field. This occurs in response to turbulent flows at the photosphere which twist the coronal field. Similar to…

Recent irradiance measurements from numerous heliophysics and astrophysics missions including SDO, GOES, Kepler, TESS, Chandra, XMM-Newton, and NICER have provided critical input in understanding the physics of the most powerful transient…

Modern wind turbines gather a wealth of data with Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. We study the short-term mutual dependencies of a variety of observables by evaluating Pearson correlation matrices on a moving time…

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

Understanding nonthermal particle generation, transport, and escape in solar flares requires detailed quantification of the particle evolution in the realistic 3D domain where the flare takes place. Rather surprisingly, apart of standard…

Sunspots or active regions (ARs) with a delta-magnetic configuration are known to be associated with strong eruptions such as flares and mass ejections. This article investigates the relationship between delta-ARs and flares over the course…

Using the short-cadence data (1-min interval) of the Kepler space telescope, we conducted a statistical analysis for the characteristic time of stellar flares on Sun-like stars (SLS). Akin to solar flares, stellar flares show rise and decay…

Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like…