相关论文: Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Implici…

We have developed a probabilistic forecasting methodology through a synthesis of belief network models and classical time-series analysis. We present the dynamic network model (DNM) and describe methods for constructing, refining, and…

The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…

We present a novel implementation of conditional Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks that successfully predict the spectral evolution of a pulse in nonlinear periodically-poled waveguides. The developed networks offer large…

Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between…

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time…

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial…

Estimating quantiles of an outcome conditional on covariates is of fundamental interest in statistics with broad application in probabilistic prediction and forecasting. We propose an ensemble method for conditional quantile estimation,…

Forecasting the dynamics of large complex networks from previous time-series data is important in a wide range of contexts. Here we present a machine learning scheme for this task using a parallel architecture that mimics the topology of…

Ability of deep networks to extract high level features and of recurrent networks to perform time-series inference have been studied. In view of universality of one hidden layer network at approximating functions under weak constraints, the…

Forecasting with multivariate time series, which aims to predict future values given previous and current several univariate time series data, has been studied for decades, with one example being ARIMA. Because it is difficult to measure…

Making the most of multispectral image time-series is a promising but still relatively under-explored research direction because of the complexity of jointly analyzing spatial, spectral and temporal information. Capturing and characterizing…

Recurrent and convolutional neural networks are the most common architectures used for time series forecasting in deep learning literature. These networks use parameter sharing by repeating a set of fixed architectures with fixed parameters…

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention…

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single…

We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional…

Time series has attracted a lot of attention in many fields today. Time series forecasting algorithm based on complex network analysis is a research hotspot. How to use time series information to achieve more accurate forecasting is a…

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have become an integral part of modeling and forecasting frameworks in areas like natural language processing and high-dimensional dynamical systems such as turbulent fluid flows. To improve the accuracy of…

Accurate time-series forecasting is crucial in various scientific and industrial domains, yet deep learning models often struggle to capture long-term dependencies and adapt to data distribution shifts over time. We introduce Future-Guided…

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of…

We introduce a method for learning the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems based on deep generative models over temporal segments of states and actions. Unlike dynamics models that operate over individual discrete timesteps, we learn the…