相关论文: Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Implici…

The probability prediction of multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging but practical task. On the one hand, the challenge is how to effectively capture the cross-series correlations between interacting time series, to achieve…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

We present a method for conditional time series forecasting based on an adaptation of the recent deep convolutional WaveNet architecture. The proposed network contains stacks of dilated convolutions that allow it to access a broad range of…

Forecasting faithful trajectories of multivariate time series from practical scopes is essential for reasonable decision-making. Recent methods majorly tailor generative conditional diffusion models to estimate the target temporal…

Probabilistic time series forecasting predicts the conditional probability distributions of the time series at a future time given past realizations. Such techniques are critical in risk-based decision-making and planning under…

Recurrent neural networks are widely used on time series data, yet such models often ignore the underlying physical structures in such sequences. A new class of physics-based methods related to Koopman theory has been introduced, offering…

Many real-world complex systems, such as epidemic spreading networks and ecosystems, can be modeled as networked dynamical systems that produce multivariate time series. Learning the intrinsic dynamics from observational data is pivotal for…

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

Time series forecasting lies at the core of important real-world applications in many fields of science and engineering. The abundance of large time series datasets that consist of complex patterns and long-term dependencies has led to the…

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution…

We propose a new modeling approach that is a generalization of generative and discriminative models. The core idea is to use an implicit parameterization of a joint probability distribution by specifying only the conditional distributions.…

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss…

While neural networks are achieving high predictive accuracy in multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting, understanding the underlying mechanisms that lead to feature-conditioned outputs remains a significant challenge for forecasters. In…

Recently, time series foundation models have shown promising zero-shot forecasting performance on time series from a wide range of domains. However, it remains unclear whether their success stems from a true understanding of temporal…

Power systems operate under uncertainty originating from multiple factors that are impossible to account for deterministically. Distributional forecasting is used to control and mitigate risks associated with this uncertainty. Recent…

Time series forecasting plays a central role in many real-world applications and has been extensively studied. Most existing approaches rely on deterministic models. However, real-world environments exhibit inherently uncertain and complex…

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these…

Despite the high performance of neural network-based time series forecasting methods, the inherent challenge in explaining their predictions has limited their applicability in certain application areas. Due to the difficulty in identifying…

Recent research demonstrate that prediction of time series by recurrent neural networks (RNNs) based on the noisy input generates a smooth anticipated trajectory. We examine the internal dynamics of RNNs and establish a set of conditions…