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Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to communicate how inputs must change for a model to alter its prediction. For a single instance, many valid counterfactuals can exist, which leaves open the possibility for an explanation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-09 James Hinns , Sofie Goethals , Stephan Van der Veeken , Theodoros Evgeniou , David Martens

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Wei Chen , Linjun Peng , Zhiyi Huang , Haoyue Dai , Zhifeng Hao , Ruichu Cai , Kun Zhang

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Unobserved confounding is a central barrier to drawing causal inferences from observational data. Several authors have recently proposed that this barrier can be overcome in the case where one attempts to infer the effects of several…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-20 Alexander D'Amour

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-08-26 Maxime Peyrard , Robert West

Counterfactual learning is emerging as an important paradigm, rooted in causality, which promises to alleviate common issues of graph neural networks (GNNs), such as fairness and interpretability. However, as in many real-world application…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-03 Dazhuo Qiu , Jinwen Chen , Arijit Khan , Yan Zhao , Francesco Bonchi

Previous work establishing completeness results for counterfactual identification has been circumscribed to the setting where the input data belongs to observational or interventional distributions (Layers 1 and 2 of Pearl's Causal…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-03-05 Arvind Raghavan , Elias Bareinboim

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-18 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir , Martin Fraenzle
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