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Interpretability is having an increasingly important role in the design of machine learning algorithms. However, interpretable methods tend to be less accurate than their black-box counterparts. Among others, DNFs (Disjunctive Normal Forms)…

Optical flow refers to the visual motion observed between two consecutive images. Since the degree of freedom is typically much larger than the constraints imposed by the image observations, the straightforward formulation of optical flow…

Verifying the correctness of Bayesian computation is challenging. This is especially true for complex models that are common in practice, as these require sophisticated model implementations and algorithms. In this paper we introduce…

Estimating density ratios between pairs of intractable data distributions is a core problem in probabilistic modeling, enabling principled comparisons of sample likelihoods under different data-generating processes across conditions and…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

In this paper, the method of gaps, a technique for deriving closed-form expressions in terms of information measures for the generalization error of supervised machine learning algorithms is introduced. The method relies on the notion of…

A classic inferential statistical problem is the goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. Such a test can be challenging when the hypothesized parametric model has an intractable likelihood and its distributional form is not available. Bayesian methods…

Contemporary machine learning methods will try to approach the Bayes error, as it is the lowest possible error any model can achieve. This paper postulates that any decision is composed of not one but two Bayesian decisions and that…

A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…

Imbalanced classification remains a pervasive challenge in machine learning, particularly when minority samples are too scarce to provide a robust discriminative boundary. In such extreme scenarios, conventional models often suffer from…

Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…

To handle with inverse problems, two probabilistic approaches have been proposed: the maximum entropy on the mean (MEM) and the Bayesian estimation (BAYES). The main object of this presentation is to compare these two approaches which are…

Model fitting is possibly the most extended problem in science. Classical approaches include the use of least-squares fitting procedures and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the value of the parameters in the model. However, in recent…

For many applications, an ensemble of base classifiers is an effective solution. The tuning of its parameters(number of classes, amount of data on which each classifier is to be trained on, etc.) requires G, the generalization error of a…

The classical approach to system identification is based on stochastic assumptions about the measurement error, and provides estimates that have random nature. Worst-case identification, on the other hand, only assumes the knowledge of…

Machine learning algorithms are becoming integrated into more and more high-stakes decision-making processes, such as in social welfare issues. Due to the need of mitigating the potentially disparate impacts from algorithmic predictions,…

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling. Despite more stable training, the loss of diffusion models is not indicative of absolute data-fitting quality, since its optimal value is typically not zero but…

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Measurement error occurs when a covariate influencing a response variable is corrupted by noise. This can lead to misleading inference outcomes, particularly in problems where accurately estimating the relationship between covariates and…

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with…