相关论文: Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of C…

The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on…

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…

Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…

The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…

We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…

Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…

With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Previous research has demonstrated that specific states of the climate system can lead to enhanced subseasonal predictability (i.e., state-dependent predictability). However, biases in Earth system models can affect the representation of…