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We propose an efficient nonparametric strategy for learning a message operator in expectation propagation (EP), which takes as input the set of incoming messages to a factor node, and produces an outgoing message as output. This learned…

Existing work on risk-sensitive reinforcement learning - both for symmetric and downside risk measures - has typically used direct Monte-Carlo estimation of policy gradients. While this approach yields unbiased gradient estimates, it also…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-09 Thomas Spooner , Rahul Savani

Due to the imbalanced nature of networked observational data, the causal effect predictions for some individuals can severely violate the positivity/overlap assumption, rendering unreliable estimations. Nevertheless, this potential risk of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-18 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Kai Zheng , Hongzhi Yin

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Why do reinforcement learning (RL) policies fail or succeed? This is a challenging question due to the complex, high-dimensional nature of agent-environment interactions. In this work, we take a causal perspective on explaining the behavior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-22 Armin Kekić , Jan Schneider , Dieter Büchler , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michel Besserve

We propose a new causal inference framework to learn causal effects from multiple, decentralized data sources in a federated setting. We introduce an adaptive transfer algorithm that learns the similarities among the data sources by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-03 Thanh Vinh Vo , Arnab Bhattacharyya , Young Lee , Tze-Yun Leong

Nonlinear function estimation is core to modern machine learning applications. In this paper, to perform nonlinear function estimation, we reduce a nonlinear inverse problem to a linear one using a polynomial kernel expansion. These kernels…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2019-10-02 Hangjin Liu , You , Zhou , Ahmad Beirami , Dror Baron

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-21 Jiehan Liu , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

Scientists have been interested in estimating causal peer effects to understand how people's behaviors are affected by their network peers. However, it is well known that identification and estimation of causal peer effects are challenging…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-07 Naoki Egami , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

This paper addresses the problem of estimating causal effects when adjustment variables in the back-door or front-door criterion are partially observed. For such scenarios, we derive bounds on the causal effects by solving two non-linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-24 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-27 Xinyi Wang , Wenhu Chen , Michael Saxon , William Yang Wang

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

We propose a data-driven framework to learn interaction kernels in stochastic multi-agent systems. Our approach aims at identifying the functional form of nonlocal interaction and diffusion terms directly from trajectory data, without any a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-18 Giacomo Albi , Alessandro Alla , Elisa Calzola

Kernel-based methods enjoy powerful generalization capabilities in handling a variety of learning tasks. When such methods are provided with sufficient training data, broadly-applicable classes of nonlinear functions can be approximated…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-12-29 Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Dimitris Berberidis , Georgios B. Giannakis

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

This paper develops a semi-parametric procedure for estimation of unconditional quantile partial effects using quantile regression coefficients. The estimator is based on an identification result showing that, for continuous covariates,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-02 Javier Alejo , Antonio F. Galvao , Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Gabriel Montes-Rojas

A well-recognized limitation of kernel learning is the requirement to handle a kernel matrix, whose size is quadratic in the number of training examples. Many methods have been proposed to reduce this computational cost, mostly by using a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-11-06 Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi , Yishay Mansour , Ohad Shamir