相关论文: A Multivariate Density Forecast Approach for Onlin…

Developing efficient solutions for inference problems in intelligent sensor networks is crucial for the next generation of location, tracking, and mapping services. This paper develops a scalable distributed probabilistic inference…

The reduction of overall system inertia in modern power systems due to the increasing deployment of distributed energy resources is generally recognized as a major issue for system stability. Consequently, real-time monitoring of system…

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

The growing complexity of the power grid, driven by increasing share of distributed energy resources and by massive deployment of intelligent internet-connected devices, requires new modelling tools for planning and operation. Physics-based…

Training energy-based probabilistic models is confronted with apparently intractable sums, whose Monte Carlo estimation requires sampling from the estimated probability distribution in the inner loop of training. This can be approximately…

Federated Learning enables multiple data centers to train a central model collaboratively without exposing any confidential data. Even though deterministic models are capable of performing high prediction accuracy, their lack of calibration…

AC/multi-terminal DC (MTDC) hybrid power systems have emerged as a solution for the large-scale and longdistance accommodation of power produced by renewable energy systems (RESs). To ensure the optimal operation of such hybrid power…

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

Chaotic dynamical systems exhibit strong sensitivity to initial conditions and often contain unresolved multiscale processes, making deterministic forecasting fundamentally limited. Generative models offer an appealing alternative by…

Probabilistic security assessment and real-time dynamic security assessments (DSA) are promising to better handle the risks of system operations. The current methodologies of security assessments may require many time-domain simulations for…

Most existing federated learning methods are unable to estimate model/predictive uncertainty since the client models are trained using the standard loss function minimization approach which ignores such uncertainties. In many situations,…

In learning-enabled autonomous systems, safety monitoring of learned components is crucial to ensure their outputs do not lead to system safety violations, given the operational context of the system. However, developing a safety monitor…

In light of a reliable and resilient power system under extreme weather and natural disasters, networked microgrids integrating local renewable resources have been adopted extensively to supply demands when the main utility experiences…

Portfolio construction traditionally relies on separately estimating expected returns and covariance matrices using historical statistics, often leading to suboptimal allocation under time-varying market conditions. This paper proposes a…

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

We present a method for image-based crowd counting, one that can predict a crowd density map together with the uncertainty values pertaining to the predicted density map. To obtain prediction uncertainty, we model the crowd density values…

With the development of AIoT, data-driven attack detection methods for cyber-physical systems (CPSs) have attracted lots of attention. However, existing methods usually adopt tractable distributions to approximate data distributions, which…

This paper introduces a novel approach to probabilistic deep learning, kernel density matrices, which provide a simpler yet effective mechanism for representing joint probability distributions of both continuous and discrete random…

Several studies have shown that deep learning models can provide more accurate volatility forecasts than the traditional methods used within this domain. This paper presents a composite model that merges a deep learning approach with…