相关论文: All-Clear Flare Prediction Using Interval-based Ti…

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

Multivariate time series forecasting is a pivotal task in several domains, including financial planning, medical diagnostics, and climate science. This paper presents the Neural Fourier Transform (NFT) algorithm, which combines…

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can…

Forecasting multivariate time series data, which involves predicting future values of variables over time using historical data, has significant practical applications. Although deep learning-based models have shown promise in this field,…

Meta-forecasting is a newly emerging field which combines meta-learning and time series forecasting. The goal of meta-forecasting is to train over a collection of source time series and generalize to new time series one-at-a-time. Previous…

We propose a three-stage framework for forecasting high-dimensional time-series data. Our method first estimates parameters for each univariate time series. Next, we use these parameters to cluster the time series. These clusters can be…

Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this…

In this paper, a novel method to perform model-based clustering of time series is proposed. The procedure relies on two iterative steps: (i) K global forecasting models are fitted via pooling by considering the series pertaining to each…

Accurate forecasting of electric load and renewable generation is essential for reliable and cost effective power system operations. Recent advances in transformer based and foundation machine learning models, driven by large scale…

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. However, forecasters based on Transformers are still suffering…

The explosion of Time Series (TS) data, driven by advancements in technology, necessitates sophisticated analytical methods. Modern management systems increasingly rely on analyzing this data, highlighting the importance of effcient…

Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative…

Solar flares - bursts of high-energy radiation responsible for severe space-weather effects - are a consequence of the occasional destabilization of magnetic fields rooted in active regions (ARs). The complexity of AR evolution is a barrier…

Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial across various industries, where accurate extraction of complex periodic and trend components can significantly enhance prediction performance. However, existing models often struggle to…

To detect anomalies with precision and without prior knowledge in time series, is it better to build a detector from the initial temporal representation, or to compute a new (tabular) representation using an existing automatic variable…

This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…

Identifying the extent to which every temporal segment influences a model's predictions is essential for explaining model decisions and increasing transparency. While post-hoc explainable methods based on gradients and feature-based…

Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…