相关论文: Flare Forecasting Algorithms Based on High-Gradien…

The Solar Orbiter mission completed its first remote-sensing observation windows in the spring of 2022. On 2/4/2022, an M-class flare followed by a filament eruption was seen both by the instruments on board the mission and from several…

The vector magnetic field characteristics of superactive regions (SARs) hold the key for understanding why SARs are extremely active and provide the guidance in space weather prediction. We aim to quantify the characteristics of SARs using…

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…

Without any doubt solar flaring loops possess a multi-thread internal structure that is poorly resolved and there are no means to observe heating episodes and thermodynamic evolution of the individual threads. These limitations cause…

Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations,…

Solar active regions (ARs) are the places hosting the majority of solar eruptions. Studying the evolution and morphological features of ARs is not only of great significance to the understanding of the physical mechanisms of solar…

Solar active regions (ARs) are the primary drivers of space weather events, making their early prediction crucial for operational forecasting systems. We develop machine learning models capable of predicting the evolution of magnetic flux…

Context. Relative field line helicity (RFLH) is a recently developed quantity which can approximate the density of relative magnetic helicity. Aims. This paper aims to determine whether RFLH can be used as an indicator of solar eruptivity.…

The question of the nature of precursors of solar flares, as well as their relationship with subsequent flares, still has no unambiguous answer. This is due, in particular, to the lack of systematic statistical work, the relative…

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…

We investigated four major solar flare events that occurred in active regions NOAA 10930 (December 13 and 14, 2006) and NOAA 11158 (February 13 and 15, 2011) by using data observed by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard the Hinode…

Solar flares are transient yet dramatic events in the atmosphere of the Sun, during which a vast amount of magnetic energy is liberated. This energy is subsequently transported through the solar atmosphere or into the heliosphere, and…

On the 29 March 2014 NOAA active region (AR) 12017 produced an X1 flare which was simultaneously observed by an unprecedented number of observatories. We have investigated the pre-flare period of this flare from 14:00 UT until 19:00 UT…

The effect of using two representations of the normal-to-surface magnetic field to calculate photospheric measures that are related to active region (AR) potential for flaring is presented. Several AR properties were computed using…

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…

Strong solar flares and coronal mass ejections, here defined not only as the bursts of electromagnetic radiation but as the entire process in which magnetic energy is released through magnetic reconnection and plasma instability, emanate…

The solar active region NOAA 11158 produced a series of flares during its passage through the solar disk. The first major flare (of class X2.2) of the current solar cycle occurred in this active region on 2011 February 15 around 01:50 UT.…

Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this…

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

We investigate whether global toroid patterns and the local magnetic field topology of solar active region AR12673 together can hindcast occurrence of the biggest X-flare of solar cycle (SC)-24. Magnetic toroid patterns (narrow…