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The perceived advantage of machine learning (ML) models is that they are flexible and can incorporate a large number of features. However, many of these are typically correlated or dependent, and incorporating all of them can hinder model…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-03-11 Anwesha Bhattacharyya , Yaqun Wang , Joel Vaughan , Vijayan N. Nair

This study introduces a data-driven, machine learning-based method to detect suitable control variables and instruments for assessing the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data. Our approach tests the joint…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-20 Nicolas Apfel , Julia Hatamyar , Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

Predicting the effect of unseen interventions is a fundamental research question across the data sciences. It is well established that in general such questions cannot be answered definitively from observational data. This realization has…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-27 Alexis Bellot

The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-09-17 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

The interpretability of prediction mechanisms with respect to the underlying prediction problem is often unclear. While several studies have focused on developing prediction models with meaningful parameters, the causal relationships…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-09-05 Patrick Blöbaum , Shohei Shimizu

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Determining the most appropriate features for machine learning predictive models is challenging regarding performance and feature acquisition costs. In particular, global feature choice is limited given that some features will only benefit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-17 Gabriel Bernardino , Anders Jonsson , Patrick Clarysse , Nicolas Duchateau

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Jianle Sun , Zeyu Tang , Gongxu Luo , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-11 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Ziqi Xu , Ha Xuan Tran , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

A major challenge in causal discovery from observational data is the absence of perfect interventions, making it difficult to distinguish causal features from spurious ones. We propose an innovative approach, Feature Matching Intervention…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-06 Haoze Li , Jun Xie

The use of machine learning (ML) in high-stakes societal decisions has encouraged the consideration of fairness throughout the ML lifecycle. Although data integration is one of the primary steps to generate high quality training data, most…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-01 Sainyam Galhotra , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Prasanna Sattigeri , Kush R. Varshney

Conditioning on some set of confounders that causally affect both treatment and outcome variables can be sufficient for eliminating bias introduced by all such confounders when estimating causal effect of the treatment on the outcome from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-24 Priyantha Wijayatunga

Telling apart the cause and effect between two random variables with purely observational data is a challenging problem that finds applications in various scientific disciplines. A key principle utilized in this task is the algorithmic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-15 Quang-Duy Tran , Bao Duong , Phuoc Nguyen , Thin Nguyen

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Feature selection is an important but challenging task in causal inference for obtaining unbiased estimates of causal quantities. Properly selected features in causal inference not only significantly reduce the time required to implement a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Tianyu Yang , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-03 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michael Muehlebach

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky
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