相关论文: Spatio-temporal quantile regression analysis revea…

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…

This study unveils localised changes in Austria's precipitation patterns, often missed by broader assessments, by comparing the 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 climate normal periods on a high resolution 2x2 km grid. Our extended model explicitly…

The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an…

Modern weather stations in Germany record daily temperatures every 10 minutes, whereas measurements from historical reference periods are often only available at much coarser temporal resolutions, typically hourly. This discrepancy must be…

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…

In this paper, an analysis of hourly air temperatures in four groups of 32 stations of the UK highland (five stations), UK lowland (four stations), Italian highland (eleven stations), and Italian lowland (twelve stations) at various…

We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the…

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

The attribution of part of global warming to changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) is an important topic which is not, yet, fully understood. Here, we examine the TSI induced temperature (T) changes on a variety of time scales, from…

The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be…

Cities are experiencing significant warming and more frequent climate extremes, raising risks for over 90% of Australians living in cities. Yet many of our tools for climate prediction and projection lack accurate representations of these…

We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate trends in sea-level atmospheric pressures, their variance and the variance of their day-to-day differences in nine regions of the world. Changes in pressure…

Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…

Using 55 years of daily average temperatures from a local weather station, I made a least-absolute-deviations (LAD) regression model that accounts for three effects: seasonal variations, the 11-year solar cycle, and a linear trend. The…

Surface temperature is a fundamental Essential Climate Variable, serving as a primary indicator of climate change and exerting a profound influence on ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. Although existing research provides a…

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

With the availability of high precision digital sensors and cheap storage medium, it is not uncommon to find large amounts of data collected on almost all measurable attributes, both in nature and man-made habitats. Weather in particular…

This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…