相关论文: Coupling physical understanding and statistical mo…

Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…

Hydroelectric power generation is a critical component of the global energy matrix, particularly in countries like Brazil, where it represents the majority of the energy supply. However, its strong dependence on river discharges, which are…

North Atlantic right whales are an endangered species; their entire population numbers approximately 372 individuals, and they are subject to major anthropogenic threats. They feed on zooplankton species whose distribution shifts in a…

Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…

This paper considers the regional estimation of high quantiles of annual maximal river flow distributions $F$, an important problem from flood frequency analysis. Even though this particular problem has been addressed by many papers, less…

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

Flooding is the most devastating phenomenon occurring globally, particularly in mountainous regions, risk dramatically increases due to complex terrains and extreme climate changes. These situations are damaging livelihoods, agriculture,…

Hurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical…

With the deterioration of climate, the phenomenon of rain-induced flooding has become frequent. To mitigate its impact, recent works adopt convolutional neural network or its variants to predict the floods. However, these methods directly…

The pattern dynamics of the one-way coupled logistic lattice which can serve as a phenomenological model for open flow is investigated and shown to be extremely rich. For medium and large coupling strengths, we find spatially periodic,…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…

Adaptive planning is ideally suited for the deep uncertainties presented by climate change. While there is a robust scholarship on the theory and methods of adaptive planning, this has largely neglected how adaptive planning is affected by…

The climate record preserved in polar glaciers, mountain glaciers, and widespread cave deposits shows repeated occurrence of abrupt global transitions between cold/dry stadial and warm/wet interstadial states during glacial periods. These…

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…

Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.…

Floods can cause horrific harm to life and property. However, they can be mitigated or even avoided by the effective use of hydraulic structures such as dams, gates, and pumps. By pre-releasing water via these structures in advance of…