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Calibration is central to reliable semantic uncertainty quantification, yet prior work has largely focused on discrimination, neglecting calibration. As calibration and discrimination capture distinct aspects of uncertainty, focusing on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-09 Tom A. Lamb , Desi R. Ivanova , Philip H. S. Torr , Tim G. J. Rudner

Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved predictive accuracy. However, modern neural networks remain systematically overconfident, posing risks for deployment in safety-critical scenarios. Current post-hoc calibration…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-01 Haolan Guo , Linwei Tao , Haoyang Luo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-22 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Kasra Ranjbarigderi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-11 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

Neural networks trained on distilled data often produce over-confident output and require correction by calibration methods. Existing calibration methods such as temperature scaling and mixup work well for networks trained on original…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-09-18 Dongyao Zhu , Bowen Lei , Jie Zhang , Yanbo Fang , Ruqi Zhang , Yiqun Xie , Dongkuan Xu

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-06-03 Selim Kuzucu , Kemal Oksuz , Jonathan Sadeghi , Puneet K. Dokania

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-03 Andy Shih , Dorsa Sadigh , Stefano Ermon

Recent works demonstrate that early layers in a neural network contain useful information for prediction. Inspired by this, we show that extending temperature scaling across all layers improves both calibration and accuracy. We call this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-21 Amr Khalifa , Michael C. Mozer , Hanie Sedghi , Behnam Neyshabur , Ibrahim Alabdulmohsin

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-03 Chunwei Ma , Ziyun Huang , Jiayi Xian , Mingchen Gao , Jinhui Xu

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-15 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

With the rapid advancement in the performance of deep neural networks (DNNs), there has been significant interest in deploying and incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) systems into real-world scenarios. However, many DNNs lack the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-18 Mijoo Kim , Junseok Kwon

Despite their incredible performance, it is well reported that deep neural networks tend to be overoptimistic about their prediction confidence. Finding effective and efficient calibration methods for neural networks is therefore an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-07 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-29 Meelis Kull , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Markus Kängsepp , Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Peter Flach

Ongoing developments in neural network models are continually advancing the state of the art in terms of system accuracy. However, the predicted labels should not be regarded as the only core output; also important is a well-calibrated…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-01-08 Gil Keren , Nicholas Cummins , Björn Schuller

Predicting calibrated confidence scores for multi-class deep networks is important for avoiding rare but costly mistakes. A common approach is to learn a post-hoc calibration function that transforms the output of the original network into…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-26 Amir Rahimi , Amirreza Shaban , Ching-An Cheng , Richard Hartley , Byron Boots

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Wenjian Huang , Guiping Cao , Jiahao Xia , Jingkun Chen , Hao Wang , Jianguo Zhang

In many applications, it is desirable that a classifier not only makes accurate predictions, but also outputs calibrated posterior probabilities. However, many existing classifiers, especially deep neural network classifiers, tend to be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-24 Xingchen Ma , Matthew B. Blaschko