相关论文: Robust non-parametric mortality and fertility mode…

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

The Gaussian process (GP) is a nonparametric prior distribution over functions indexed by time, space, or other high-dimensional index set. The GP is a flexible model yet its limitation is given by its very nature: it can only model…

Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely recognized as powerful non-parametric models for regression and classification. Traditional GP frameworks predominantly operate under the assumption that the inputs are either accurately known or subject…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

We study the performance of nonparametric Bayes procedures for one-dimensional diffusions with periodic drift. We improve existing convergence rate results for Gaussian process (GP) priors with fixed hyper parameters. Moreover, we exhibit…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

Effective population size (Ne(t)) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics and phylodynamics that quantifies genetic diversity and reveals demographic history. Coalescent-based methods enable the inference of Ne(t) trajectories…

In image reconstruction, an accurate quantification of uncertainty is of great importance for informed decision making. Here, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems can be used: the image is represented through a random function that…

We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…

Although using non-Gaussian distributions in economic models has become increasingly popular, currently there is no systematic way for calibrating a discrete distribution from the data without imposing parametric assumptions. This paper…

Probabilistic Regression refers to predicting a full probability density function for the target conditional on the features. We present a nonparametric approach to this problem which combines base classifiers (typically gradient boosted…

This paper focusses on the formulation of numerical integration as an inferential task. To date, research effort has largely focussed on the development of Bayesian cubature, whose distributional output provides uncertainty quantification…

Almost all scientific data have uncertainties originating from different sources. Gaussian process regression (GPR) models are a natural way to model data with Gaussian-distributed uncertainties. GPR also has the benefit of reducing I/O…

The ability to predict future states is crucial to informed decision-making while interacting with dynamic environments. With cameras providing a prevalent and information-rich sensing modality, the problem of predicting future states from…

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an important tool in machine learning and statistics with applications ranging from social and natural science through engineering. They constitute a powerful kernelized non-parametric method with…

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a non-parametric Bayesian technique for interpolating or fitting data. The main barrier to further uptake of this powerful tool rests in the computational costs associated with the matrices which arise…