相关论文: Multilevel calibration weighting for survey data

With the precipitous decline in response rates, researchers and pollsters have been left with highly non-representative samples, relying on constructed weights to make these samples representative of the desired target population. Though…

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a flexible modeling technique that has been used in a broad range of small-area estimation problems. Traditionally, MRP studies have been focused on non-causal settings, where estimating…

Machine-learning systems used in survey-based social measurement require uncertainty estimates that are reliable across population subgroups, not merely valid in aggregate. We study ordinal conformal prediction for five-level AI-attitude…

Opinion mining and demographic attribute inference have many applications in social science. In this paper, we propose models to infer daily joint probabilities of multiple latent attributes from Twitter data, such as political sentiment…

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…

The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not…

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods…

It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the…

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Post-hoc recalibration methods are widely used to ensure that classifiers provide faithful probability estimates. We argue that parametric recalibration functions based on logistic regression can be motivated from a simple theoretical…

Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes environments, ensuring both probabilistic reliability and prediction stability has become critical. This paper examines the interplay between classification calibration and…

Survey statisticians make use of the available auxiliary information to improve estimates. One important example is given by calibration estimation, that seeks for new weights that are close (in some sense) to the basic design weights and…

Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

Calibration is a widely used method in survey sampling to adjust weights so that estimated totals of some chosen calibration variables match known population totals or totals obtained from other sources. When a large number of auxiliary…

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this…

In classification problems, sampling bias between training data and testing data is critical to the ranking performance of classification scores. Such bias can be both unintentionally introduced by data collection and intentionally…

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted estimates with limited data. Recent computational advancements allow…

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained…