相关论文: Uncertainty Bounds for Multivariate Machine Learni…

Reinforcement learning can enable complex, adaptive behavior to be learned automatically for autonomous robotic platforms. However, practical deployment of reinforcement learning methods must contend with the fact that the training process…

Machine learning (ML) surrogate models are increasingly used in engineering analysis and design to replace computationally expensive simulation models, significantly reducing computational cost and accelerating decision-making processes.…

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Irradiation-induced void swelling is a critical degradation mechanism for structural materials in nuclear reactors, dictating component operational lifespan and safety. While recent machine learning (ML) approaches have improved the…

When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship…

In healthcare applications, predictive uncertainty has been used to assess predictive accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that predictive uncertainty estimated by the current methods does not highly correlate with prediction error by…

Model stealing aims at inferring a victim model's functionality at a fraction of the original training cost. While the goal is clear, in practice the model's architecture, weight dimension, and original training data can not be determined…

Multi-task neural network architectures provide a mechanism that jointly integrates information from distinct sources. It is ideal in the context of MR-only radiotherapy planning as it can jointly regress a synthetic CT (synCT) scan and…

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the…

A powerful and flexible approach to structured prediction consists in embedding the structured objects to be predicted into a feature space of possibly infinite dimension by means of output kernels, and then, solving a regression problem in…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks (such as face recognition systems, and self-driving cars). While many methods have been proposed to build robust models, how to build certifiably…

Estimated uncertainty by approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks are prone to miscalibration, which leads to overconfident predictions in critical tasks that have a clear asymmetric cost or significant losses. Here, we extend the…

A meta-model of the input-output data of a computationally expensive simulation is often employed for prediction, optimization, or sensitivity analysis purposes. Fitting is enabled by a designed experiment, and for computationally expensive…

Deep neural networks have shown great achievements in solving complex problems. However, there are fundamental problems that limit their real world applications. Lack of measurable criteria for estimating uncertainty in the network outputs…

Power device reliability is a major concern during operation under extreme environments, as doing so reduces the operational lifetime of any power system or sensing infrastructure. Due to a potential for system failure, devices must be…

Multi-fidelity models are becoming more prevalent in engineering, particularly in aerospace, as they combine both the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models with the high accuracy of higher-fidelity simulations. Various…