相关论文: Right Decisions from Wrong Predictions: A Mechanis…

We present an algorithm guaranteeing dynamic regret bounds for online omniprediction with long term constraints. The goal in this recently introduced problem is for a learner to generate a sequence of predictions which are broadcast to a…

Systematically biased forecasts are typically interpreted as evidence of forecasters' irrationality and/or asymmetric loss. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation: when forecasts inform policy decisions, and the resulting…

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in…

We consider a mechanism design setting with a single item and a single buyer who is uncertain about the value of the item. Both the buyer and the seller have a common model for the buyer's value, but the buyer discovers her true value only…

We introduce Conformal Decision Theory, a framework for producing safe autonomous decisions despite imperfect machine learning predictions. Examples of such decisions are ubiquitous, from robot planning algorithms that rely on pedestrian…

Prediction markets are designed to elicit information from multiple agents in order to predict (obtain probabilities for) future events. A good prediction market incentivizes agents to reveal their information truthfully; such incentive…

Ranking functions that are used in decision systems often produce disparate results for different populations because of bias in the underlying data. Addressing, and compensating for, these disparate outcomes is a critical problem for fair…

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate…

As foundation models grow in size, fine-tuning them becomes increasingly expensive. While GPU spot instances offer a low-cost alternative to on-demand resources, their volatile prices and availability make deadline-aware scheduling…

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the…

In the e-commerce space, accurate prediction of delivery dates plays a major role in customer experience as well as in optimizing the supply chain operations. Predicting a date later than the actual delivery date might sometimes result in…

Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work,…

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Strategyproof mechanisms provide robust equilibrium with minimal assumptions about knowledge and rationality but can be unachievable in combination with other desirable properties such as budget-balance, stability against deviations by…

Aircraft performance models play a key role in airline operations, especially in planning a fuel-efficient flight. In practice, manufacturers provide guidelines which are slightly modified throughout the aircraft life cycle via the tuning…

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Appropriate reliance is critical to achieving synergistic human-AI collaboration. For instance, when users over-rely on AI assistance, their human-AI team performance is bounded by the model's capability. This work studies how the…

A central push in operations models over the last decade has been the incorporation of models of customer choice. Real world implementations of many of these models face the formidable stumbling block of simply identifying the `right' model…