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Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-05-22 Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani , James Weimer , Insup Lee

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-01-02 Anqi Liu , Brian D. Ziebart

Covariate shift, a widely used assumption in tackling {\it distributional shift} (when training and test distributions differ), focuses on scenarios where the distribution of the labels conditioned on the feature vector is the same, but the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-24 Deeksha Adil , Jarosław Błasiok

Existing calibration algorithms address the problem of covariate shift via unsupervised domain adaptation. However, these methods suffer from the following limitations: 1) they require unlabeled data from the target domain, which may not be…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-19 Yunye Gong , Xiao Lin , Yi Yao , Thomas G. Dietterich , Ajay Divakaran , Melinda Gervasio

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-30 Hui Xu , Robert Tibshirani

The main challenge that sets transfer learning apart from traditional supervised learning is the distribution shift, reflected as the shift between the source and target models and that between the marginal covariate distributions. In this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-02 Zelin He , Ying Sun , Jingyuan Liu , Runze Li

We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-26 Baozhen Wang , Xingye Qiao

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-28 Yu-Jie Zhang , Zhen-Yu Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

Recalibration of binary probabilistic classifiers to a target prior probability is an important task in areas like credit risk management. However, recalibration of a classifier learned on a training dataset to a target on a test dataset in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-02 Dirk Tasche

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-12 Maximilian Autenrieth , David A. van Dyk , Roberto Trotta , David C. Stenning

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-24 Mingyang Cai , Thomas Klausch , Mark A. van de Wiel

Consider a scenario where we have access to train data with both covariates and outcomes while test data only contains covariates. In this scenario, our primary aim is to predict the missing outcomes of the test data. With this objective in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Masahiro Kato , Kota Matsui , Ryo Inokuchi

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-17 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where the data distribution may shift between training and test time, and additional information about it may be available at test time. This relates to popular scenarios such as…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-06-05 Bernhard Schölkopf , Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Kun Zhang

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-12-13 Ying Jin , Naoki Egami , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-25 Tianyu Guo , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn a model on several source domains, hoping that the model can generalize well to unseen target domains. The distribution shift between domains contains the covariate shift and conditional shift, both…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-09-20 Jianxin Lin , Yongqiang Tang , Junping Wang , Wensheng Zhang
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