相关论文: Rare event algorithm study of extreme warm summers…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…

Several large scale circulation patterns have been identified in relation to extreme Northern Hemisphere summer heatwaves. Three main ones are a double jet over Eurasia, a positive phase of the summer northern annular mode, and a…

Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

We investigate the statistics and dynamics of extreme heat waves over different areas of Europe. We find heatwaves over France and Scandinavia to be associated with recurrent wavenumber three teleconnection patterns in surface temperature…

Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…

Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agency may be interested by the…

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…