相关论文: Synergy in fertility forecasting: Improving foreca…

A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time…

Model averaging, as an appealing ensemble technique, strategically integrates all valuable information from candidate models to construct fast and accurate prediction. Despite of having been widely practiced in many fields such as…

Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP) is one of the main problems of applied astrometry. In order to solve this problem, various approaches are used and in order to select the best one, comparison…

Time Series Forecasting is at the core of many practical applications such as sales forecasting for business, rainfall forecasting for agriculture and many others. Though this problem has been extensively studied for years, it is still…

This paper uses a minimum divergence framework to introduce a new way of calculating model weights that can be used to average probabilistic predictions from statistical and machine learning models. The method is general and can be applied…

Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection…

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

A proper forecast of the menstrual cycle is meaningful for women's health, as it allows individuals to take preventive actions to minimize cycle-associated discomforts. In addition, precise prediction can be useful for planning important…

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a…

The present study deals with the estimation of the mean value of fecundability by fitting a theoretical distribution from the observed month of first conception of the married women who did not use any contraceptive method before their…

Intuitively, one would expect a more skillful forecast if predicting weather averaged over one week instead of the weather averaged over one day, and similarly for different spatial averaging areas. However, there are few systematic studies…

Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…

Ensemble forecasts of weather and climate are subject to systematic biases in the ensemble mean and variance, leading to inaccurate estimates of the forecast mean and variance. To address these biases, ensemble forecasts are post-processed…

Nowadays model uncertainty has become one of the most important problems in both academia and industry. In this paper, we mainly consider the scenario in which we have a common model set used for model averaging instead of selecting a…

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Accurate evaluation of forecasting models is essential for ensuring reliable predictions. Current practices for evaluating and comparing forecasting models focus on summarising performance into a single score, using metrics such as SMAPE.…