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In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-06 Ronald Seoh

Among the various options to estimate uncertainty in deep neural networks, Monte-Carlo dropout is widely popular for its simplicity and effectiveness. However the quality of the uncertainty estimated through this method varies and choices…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-14 Francesco Verdoja , Ville Kyrki

Traditional neural networks provide deterministic predictions without inherent uncertainty estimates. While Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled approach to uncertainty quantification, their computational complexity limits…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-25 Rouaa Hoblos , Noura Dridi , Noureddine Zerhouni , Zeina Al Masry

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-18 Aslak Djupskås , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

Uncertainty quantification in a neural network is one of the most discussed topics for safety-critical applications. Though Neural Networks (NNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many applications, they still provide…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-09 Mehedi Hasan , Abbas Khosravi , Ibrahim Hossain , Ashikur Rahman , Saeid Nahavandi

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

Knowing the uncertainty associated with the output of a deep neural network is of paramount importance in making trustworthy decisions, particularly in high-stakes fields like medical diagnosis and autonomous systems. Monte Carlo Dropout…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-05-22 Hamzeh Asgharnezhad , Afshar Shamsi , Roohallah Alizadehsani , Arash Mohammadi , Hamid Alinejad-Rokny

Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-25 Kai Brach , Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr

The Monte Carlo dropout method has proved to be a scalable and easy-to-use approach for estimating the uncertainty of deep neural network predictions. This approach was recently applied to Fault Detection and Di-agnosis (FDD) applications…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-11 Baihong Jin , Yingshui Tan , Yuxin Chen , Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli

Monte Carlo dropout may effectively capture model uncertainty in deep learning, where a measure of uncertainty is obtained by using multiple instances of dropout at test time. However, Monte Carlo dropout is applied across the whole network…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-02-03 Liangping Ma , John Kaewell

Among Bayesian methods, Monte-Carlo dropout provides principled tools for evaluating the epistemic uncertainty of neural networks. Its popularity recently led to seminal works that proposed activating the dropout layers only during…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-07 Emanuele Ledda , Giorgio Fumera , Fabio Roli

Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-03 Diego Vergara , Sergio Hernández , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Felipe Jorquera

Monte-Carlo (MC) Dropout provides a practical solution for estimating predictive distributions in deterministic neural networks. Traditional dropout, applied within the signal space, may fail to account for frequency-related noise common in…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-01-22 Tal Zeevi , Lawrence H. Staib , John A. Onofrey

Dropout as regularization has been used extensively to prevent overfitting for training neural networks. During training, units and their connections are randomly dropped, which could be considered as sampling many different submodels from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-28 Zhaoyuan Yang , Arpit Jain

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

The examination of uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning (ML) models is receiving increasing attention. One uncertainty modeling technique used for this purpose is Monte-Carlo (MC)-Dropout, where repeated predictions are…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-05-25 Florian Heidecker , Ahmad El-Khateeb , Bernhard Sick

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

MC Dropout is a mainstream "free lunch" method in medical imaging for approximate Bayesian computations (ABC). Its appeal is to solve out-of-the-box the daunting task of ABC and uncertainty quantification in Neural Networks (NNs); to fall…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Neural networks are lately more and more often being used in the context of data-driven control, as an approximate model of the true system dynamics. Model Predictive Control (MPC) adopts this practise leading to neural MPC strategies. This…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-06-05 Spyridon Syntakas , Kostas Vlachos
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