相关论文: Infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that has emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of October 13, the outbreak has spread rapidly across the world, affecting over 38 million people, and causing over 1…

This article presents a new model to predict the evolution of infective diseases under uncertainty or low-quality information, just as it has happened in the initial scenario during the CoVid-19 spread in China and Europe. The model has…

Estimation of prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of the Covid-19 disease. In fact, unveiling uncounted cases has fundamental implications for public policy interventions…

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many healthcare systems…

In this study, we apply a novel combination of close proximity and room-scale risk assessment approaches for people sharing public transport environments to predict their contagion risk due to SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection. In…

We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model…

We investigate the possibility of a harvesting effect, i.e. a temporary forward shift in mortality, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic by looking at the excess mortality trends of an area that registered one of the highest death tolls in…

Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this paper, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other…

Facing a global challenge with over 6.9 million fatalities, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of CoViD-19, demands novel and comprehensive approaches to understand its complex dynamics. This…

How may exposure risks to SARS-CoV-2 be assessed quantitatively? The material metabolism approach of Industrial Ecology can be applied to the mass flows of these virions by their numbers, as a key step in the analysis of the current…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…

Widespread vaccination campaigns have changed the landscape for COVID-19, vastly altering symptoms and reducing morbidity and mortality. We estimate trends in mortality by month of admission and vaccination status among those hospitalised…

A number of epidemics, including the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic of 2002-2004, have been known to exhibit superspreading, in which a small fraction of infected individuals is responsible for the majority of new infections. The existence of…

In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that…

It is well established that people with diabetes are more likely to have serious complications from COVID-19. Nearly 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in the African region are linked to diabetes. World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 18.3% of…

Moderate to severe post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also called long COVID, is estimated to impact as many as 10% of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals, representing a chronic condition with a substantial global public…

The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…

In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…

We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting…