相关论文: Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causa…

We use real-world contact sequences, time-ordered lists of contacts from one person to another, to study how fast information or disease can spread across network of contacts. Specifically we measure the reachability time -- the average…

Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine…

Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…

Monte Carlo simulation is an essential component of experimental particle physics in all the phases of its life-cycle: the investigation of the physics reach of detector concepts, the design of facilities and detectors, the development and…

In this paper we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake Equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the…

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo…

The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…

Barring swarm robotics, a substantial share of current machine-human and machine-machine learning and interaction mechanisms are being developed and fed by results of agent-based computer simulations, game-theoretic models, or robotic…

Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that…

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…

We provide an overview of Monte Carlo algorithms based on Markovian stochastic dynamics of interacting and reacting many-particle systems not in thermal equilibrium. These agent-based simulations are an effective way of introducing students…

The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number of observable civilizations in the Galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcome is so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions can range from a…

Causal discovery problems use a set of observations to deduce causality between variables in the real world, typically to answer questions about biological or physical systems. These observations are often recorded at regular time…

We present a Monte Carlo simulation model of an epidemic spread inspired on physics variables such as temperature, cross section and interaction range, which considers the Plank distribution of photons in the black body radiation to…

The probability of detecting a planetary companion of a lensing star during a microlensing event toward the Galactic center, averaged over all relevant event and galactic parameters, when the planet-star mass ratio $q=0.001$ has a maximum…

As increasingly complex hypothesis-testing scenarios are considered in many scientific fields, analytic derivation of null distributions is often out of reach. To the rescue comes Monte Carlo testing, which may appear deceptively simple: as…

Land-based beacons, information laden probes sent into our solar system, and more distal communication nodes have each been proposed as the most likely means by which we might be contacted by ET. Each method, considered in isolation from…

Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The…

We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modelling…

We study the dynamical evolution of globular clusters using our new 2-D Monte Carlo code, and we calculate the lifetimes of clusters in the Galactic environment. We include the effects of a mass spectrum, mass loss in the Galactic tidal…