相关论文: Bayesian Changepoint Analysis

The process of dynamic state estimation (filtering) based on point process observations is in general intractable. Numerical sampling techniques are often practically useful, but lead to limited conceptual insight about optimal…

The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing principled approach for distilling statistical prior that is consistent with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a…

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

As machine learning becomes more prominent there is a growing demand to perform several inference tasks in parallel. Running a dedicated model for each task is computationally expensive and therefore there is a great interest in multi-task…

In my PhD thesis I studied cooperative phenomena arise in complex systems using the methods of statistical and computational physics. The aim of my work was also to study the critical behaviour of interacting many-body systems during their…

A maximum likelihood methodology for a general class of models is presented, using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The typical target of ABC methods are models with intractable likelihoods, and we combine an ABC-MCMC…

This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Bayesian optimization is normally performed within fixed variable bounds. In cases like hyperparameter tuning for machine learning algorithms, setting the variable bounds is not trivial. It is hard to guarantee that any fixed bounds will…

Aligning beamlines at synchrotron light sources is a high-dimensional, expensive-to-sample optimization problem, as beams are focused using a series of dynamic optical components. Bayesian Optimization is an efficient machine learning…

This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks, have long been applied to image and multi-media tasks, particularly those with structured data. More recently, there has been more attention to unstructured data that can be…

While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian procedures.…

Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

The detection of change-points in a spatially or time ordered data sequence is an important problem in many fields such as genetics and finance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a statistic recently suggested for detecting…

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate…