相关论文: Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal co…

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy tail behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been…

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Probabilistic, hierarchically coherent forecasting is a key problem in many practical forecasting applications -- the goal is to obtain coherent probabilistic predictions for a large number of time series arranged in a pre-specified tree…

We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…

1. Analog forecasting has been successful at producing robust forecasts for a variety of ecological and physical processes. Analog forecasting is a mechanism-free nonlinear method that forecasts a system forward in time by examining how…

Time series data appears in a variety of applications such as smart transportation and environmental monitoring. One of the fundamental problems for time series analysis is time series forecasting. Despite the success of recent deep time…

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

A well known problem with EOP prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing period and prediction length may not remain as such for other period of time. In this paper we consider possible strategies to…

Large collections of time series data are often organized into hierarchies with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. Probabilistic coherent forecasting is tasked to produce forecasts…

Machine learning is about forecasting. When the forecasts come with an evaluation metric the forecasts become useful. What are reasonable evaluation metrics? How do existing evaluation metrics relate? In this work, we provide a general…

This review article focuses on regularised estimation procedures applicable to geostatistical and spatial econometric models. These methods are particularly relevant in the case of big geospatial data for dimensionality reduction or model…

This paper proposes corrected forecast combinations when the original combined forecast errors are serially dependent. Motivated by the classic Bates and Granger (1969) example, we show that combined forecast errors can be strongly…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand…

Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

We introduce the Robustness of Hierarchically Organized Time Series (RHiOTS) framework, designed to assess the robustness of hierarchical time series forecasting models and algorithms on real-world datasets. Hierarchical time series, where…

When providing probabilistic forecasts for uncertain future events, it is common to strive for calibrated forecasts, that is, the predictive distribution should be compatible with the observed outcomes. Several notions of calibration are…

The growing share of intermittent renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and the increasing degree of so-called sector coupling necessitates optimization-based energy system models with high temporal and spatial resolutions, which…

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…