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We consider the two related problems of detecting if an example is misclassified or out-of-distribution. We present a simple baseline that utilizes probabilities from softmax distributions. Correctly classified examples tend to have greater…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2018-10-04 Dan Hendrycks , Kevin Gimpel

Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-02 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Detecting test samples drawn sufficiently far away from the training distribution statistically or adversarially is a fundamental requirement for deploying a good classifier in many real-world machine learning applications. However, deep…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-30 Kimin Lee , Kibok Lee , Honglak Lee , Jinwoo Shin

We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-04-09 Marcin Możejko , Mateusz Susik , Rafał Karczewski

Neural operators aim to approximate the solution operator of a system of differential equations purely from data. They have shown immense success in modeling complex dynamical systems across various domains. However, the occurrence of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-01 Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

The application of machine learning in safety-critical systems requires a reliable assessment of uncertainty. However, deep neural networks are known to produce highly overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Even if…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-19 Alexander Meinke , Julian Bitterwolf , Matthias Hein

The problem of detecting whether a test sample is from in-distribution (i.e., training distribution by a classifier) or out-of-distribution sufficiently different from it arises in many real-world machine learning applications. However, the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-27 Kimin Lee , Honglak Lee , Kibok Lee , Jinwoo Shin

This article describes a robust algorithm to estimate a conditional probability density f(t|x) as a non-parametric smooth regression function. It is based on a neural network and the Bayesian interpretation of the network output as a…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Michael Feindt

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have performed admirably in classification tasks. However, the characterization of their classification uncertainties, required for certain applications, has been lacking. In this work, we investigate the issue…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-28 Yu Pan , Kwo-Sen Kuo , Michael L. Rilee , Hongfeng Yu

Commonly used AI networks are very self-confident in their predictions, even when the evidence for a certain decision is dubious. The investigation of a deep learning model output is pivotal for understanding its decision processes and…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-11-08 Damian Matuszewski , Ida-Maria Sintorn

Though remarkable progress has been achieved in various vision tasks, deep neural networks still suffer obvious performance degradation when tested in out-of-distribution scenarios. We argue that the feature statistics (mean and standard…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-04-25 Xiaotong Li , Yongxing Dai , Yixiao Ge , Jun Liu , Ying Shan , Ling-Yu Duan

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are often constructed under the closed-world assumption, which may fail to generalize to the out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This leads to DNNs producing overconfident wrong predictions and can result in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-31 Yang Chen , Chih-Li Sung , Arpan Kusari , Xiaoyang Song , Wenbo Sun

A softmax operator applied to a set of values acts somewhat like the maximization function and somewhat like an average. In sequential decision making, softmax is often used in settings where it is necessary to maximize utility but also to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2017-06-15 Kavosh Asadi , Michael L. Littman

Probabilistic models often use neural networks to control their predictive uncertainty. However, when making out-of-distribution (OOD)} predictions, the often-uncontrollable extrapolation properties of neural networks yield poor uncertainty…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-19 Pierre Segonne , Yevgen Zainchkovskyy , Søren Hauberg

Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-30 Taejong Joo , Uijung Chung , Min-Gwan Seo

It is often remarked that neural networks fail to increase their uncertainty when predicting on data far from the training distribution. Yet naively using softmax confidence as a proxy for uncertainty achieves modest success in tasks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-10 Tim Pearce , Alexandra Brintrup , Jun Zhu

We present a latent variable model for classification that provides a novel probabilistic interpretation of neural network softmax classifiers. We derive a variational objective to train the model, analogous to the evidence lower bound…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-10 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Mrinmaya Sachan , Carl Allen

Neural networks (NNs) are widely used for object classification in autonomous driving. However, NNs can fail on input data not well represented by the training dataset, known as out-of-distribution (OOD) data. A mechanism to detect OOD…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-09-07 Julia Nitsch , Masha Itkina , Ransalu Senanayake , Juan Nieto , Max Schmidt , Roland Siegwart , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Cesar Cadena

The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This work investigates whether this distribution moreover correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty,…

Existing uncertainty modeling approaches try to detect an out-of-distribution point from the in-distribution dataset. We extend this argument to detect finer-grained uncertainty that distinguishes between (a). certain points, (b). uncertain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-12 Rahul Soni , Naresh Shah , Jimmy D. Moore
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